Curacao’s heroic effort to draw with Ecuador at the World Cup on Sunday has given the Socceroos a huge boost in their quest to move on to the knockout stages of the tournament.
Tony Popovic’s side had already given themselves every chance to make it through the knockout round for the second-consecutive World Cup with their opening win over Turkiye.
But a loss to America, compounded by Paraguay’s win over Turkiye, mean Australia need a point from their final game if they want to qualify.
The main positive from the second round of matches for the green and gold is that Turkiye’s loss means they can finish no lower than third due to FIFA’s head-to-head tiebreaker system.
At this year’s tournament, eight of the third-placed teams will earn a spot in the newly introduced round of 32.
And with Ecuador and Curacao both on one point, it seems even a loss against Paraguay wouldn’t be the end of their World Cup campaign.
Australia’s opening win over Turkiye boosted their chances at qualification to the knockout phase of the World Cup
However, they were pegged back somewhat when they suffered defeat at the hands of co-hosts America
Paraguay’s win over Turkiye further compounded their misery
But Curacao’s heroic dras with Ecuador has given the Socceroos a 90 per cent chance of qualification
According to The Athletic, the Socceroos now have a 90 percent chance of making it out of the group stage without having kicked a ball since that loss to America.
A draw for both sides would surely be enough to see them through on four points each, in this expanded World Cup format.
Despite that, Australia will be seeking automatic qualification via second due to the massive disparity in potential opponents in the next round.
Finishing second would see them take on the team that finished second in Group G, which is most likely to be one of Egypt, Iran or New Zealand.
However, a third-placed finish would see them take on the likes of Germany – who have already topped their group – Portugal, Spain or France, who are all expected to finish top of their respective groups.
Anothger potential wrinkle in their final group game against Paraguay is that the South American side are at greater risk of not making it through in third should they lose to Australia.
This is due to their 4-1 loss against America giving them a far inferior goal difference, that currently stands at -2.
If they are to get a result against Paraguay, the Australian side will have to show far more than they did against America.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side were superior in every way as they strolled home to a comfortable 2-0 win to claim top spot of Group D.
Both Nestory Irankunda and Tony Popovic were unhappy with the officiating of their loss, Australia’s coach is perhaps better off looking inwards.
Tony Popovic will need to get his team selection right if Australia are to finish second in Group D to avoid some of the tournament favourites
His team selection gamble in the first game – when he dropped captain Maty Ryan for Patrick beach – worked a charm as Beach made a number of key saves.
Popovic would not see such results when he decided to drop goalscorers Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe for Nishan Velupillay and Mathew Leckie.
Australia had built their win over Turkiye on a solid defensive performance, while carrying a real threat on the counter-attack.
But without the pace, and quality on the ball that Irankunda possesses, Mohamed Toure cut a lonely figure at the top of the pitch.
They had no out ball as America penned them in for long periods of the game, and when they were able to get on the ball, they lacked any real quality.
That will need to be addressed if they are to beat Paraguay and secure a second-placed finish in their group.
In any event, any result other than a loss should be enough to see them through to another knockout phase of a World Cup, and that is something that should be celebrated for the Socceroos.
