Following the death of Pope Francis, the eyes of the world will turn to Rome, where a papal conclave will decide who will become the next pontiff – but could the world see its first American pope this election?
The simple answer is unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
This enormous decision will be made by cardinals from all over the world. Of the 252 members of the College of Cardinals, 138 are currently eligible to elect the new pope. Though the American Catholic Church is one of the biggest and richest in the world, there has never been an American-born pope. The idea of an American pope has often been dismissed, given the geopolitical influence America already has across the globe.
There are currently nine U.S. cardinals that are expected to take place in the 2025 conclave, according to the list of cardinal electors.
They are: Cardinal Robert Prevost, Cardinal Blase J. Cupich, Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan, Cardinal Robert W. McElroy, Cardinal Joseph Tobin, Cardinal Wilton Daniel Gregory, Cardinal Daniel DiNardo, Cardinal Seán Patrick O’Malley and Cardinal Raymond Burke.
With nine U.S. cardinals eligible to vote in the conclave out of 138, the mathematical possibility of the next pope being American is around 6.5 percent. Bookmakers odds are also unfavorable.
According to Online Betting Guide, none of the Americans are considered favorites. According to William Hill, Luis Antonio Tagle and Pietro Parolin are currently front-runners to succeed Francis with 7/4 odds followed by Cardinal Peter Erdo at 8/1.
However, as fans of the Academy Award-winning movie Conclave know, the process of selecting a new pope is political – and anything could happen. Even so, John Allen Jr., a Vatican expert and author of “All the Pope’s Men: The Inside Story of How the Vatican Really Thinks” told The New York Post, that the prospect of an American pope is slim.
Appointed Archbishop of New York in 2009, Dolan is one of the most recognizable figures in the U.S. Catholic church – known for his charisma and media savvy. However, one of the main issues, according to Allen, is that Dolan may simply be “too American.”
“He’s seen as charismatic, articulate, and someone certainly capable of holding his own on the global stage, having served as the chief shepherd of the media capital of the universe,” Allen told The Post. “Nonetheless, I suspect you’d have to rate Dolan as a long shot, not a favorite.”
Americans, often seen at the forefront of global culture clashes and with stereotypically brash attitudes, would need to demonstrate other skills such as experience abroad and capacity with languages to take on the role.
Burke, who was born in Wisconsin, has already been touted by some as a possible successor to the pontiff, having participated in the 2013 papal conclave that elected Pope Francis.
Regarded by critics as an outspoken traditionalist he was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
Burke publicly clashed with Francis’s more liberal philosophies, particularly regarding his willingness to allow divorced and remarried couples to receive the Eucharist. He has also called the church’s new language around artificial contraception, civil marriages and gay people “objectionable”.
He previously said that Catholic politicians who support legalized abortion, such as former president Joe Biden, should not receive the Eucharist.
