The Calcutta Cup seems to light a fire within Gregor Townsend and his Scotland players. The sight of the English red rose ignites something deep inside, producing sparks that could illuminate even the bleakest of skies.
This is the fixture, more than any other, which has sustained him and coloured his tenure as head coach. In an incredible run of dominance, Scotland have wound up with the trophy six times out of eight on Townsend’s watch.
Between 2021-2024, there was a run of four straight victories, two of which came down at HQ. That kind of sequence hadn’t been witnessed since 1896 and the times of Queen Victoria.
During the Townsend era, Scotland fans have had a goldmine of memories to cherish against England; Finn Russell’s brilliance when he threw *that* pass in 2018, the comeback of all comebacks in 2019.
Finally breaking a generation of pain and torment when they won at Twickenham in 2021. Duhan van der Merwe running the length of the field in 2023, then scoring a hat-trick at Murrayfield the following year.
If you were to ask any Scotland supporter to reflect on their best memory of watching the national team over the past decade or so, chances are most of them would be in a game against England.
Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend is under huge pressure ahead of today’s clash
Scotland last lifted the Calcutta Cup back in 2024, winning 30-21 at Murrayfield
Many of Townsend’s best victories in charge of Scotland have come in this famous fixture
But how much is left in the tank? Townsend is now a head coach running on fumes. This will be his 100th match in charge of Scotland, a fitting fixture in which to bring up that landmark.
He is 100 not out. Not yet, at least. But no centurion has ever known the threat of a blade and being axed quite this strongly since the times of Ancient Rome.
Ah, yes, Rome. Too soon? Are the wounds still too raw? It was in the Eternal City last weekend where Scotland’s Six Nations Championship began in such dismal fashion with the defeat to Italy.
It was a horror show. The lineout was a shambles, the scrum wasn’t much better, and Scotland’s defensive structure in the backfield was lamentable.
Can all of that be fixed in just one week? Well, Townsend had better hope so. Because England will arrive at Murrayfield smelling blood — and seeking vengeance after so much trauma at this venue in recent times.
In trying to illustrate just how much Scotland have dominated this rivalry under since 2018, it is most instructive to look at the record of England captain Mato Itoje.
Itoje is now 31 years old. He will win his 99th cap this afternoon. He will go down as one of the all-time greats of English rugby. A victorious captain with the British and Irish Lions to boot.
But he has only won once at Murrayfield. Once. It is remarkable that such a totemic figure of English rugby has experienced such limited success at this stadium.
Scotland will look to recover from last week’s disappointing result and performance in Rome
England dismantled Wales last week whilst barely getting out of second gear. They have 12 games on the bounce and have ambitions of teeing up a Grand Slam decider against France in Paris on the final weekend.
The road to get there now passes through Murrayfield. Whilst there is an onus on Scotland to produce a reaction after last weekend, the full weight of expectation to win is on England’s shoulders.
As one English pundit recently noted, ‘big teams don’t lose to Scotland’. As a nation, we can get annoyed about those kind of statements all we want. But we couldn’t sue.
This is the litmus test of England’s progress under Steve Borthwick. They are the better team, have better players, they are in form. Anything less than a win for them is a crushing failure.
There’s no Van der Merwe in the Scotland team. A player who has been the grim reaper to England with seven tries in the last five years, he remains a high-profile absentee from the Scotland match-day squad.
Despite the fact that Van der Merwe has been out of form lately, his absence is surely a huge boost to England, psychologically as much as anything else.
Blair Kinghorn’s continued omission from the Scotland squad is another strange business. He has been sent back to France this weekend for club duties with Toulouse.
Townsend has stuck with a five-three split on the bench, despite the fact it was a very clear mistake against Italy last weekend.
England will no doubt be boosted by the absence of tormentor Duhan van der Merwe
The weather won’t be a monsoon this time around. But given England’s firepower on the bench, you once again have to question his logic.
With Tom Curry and Henry Pollock to come on in the second half, Scotland need to find a way to match the energy and dynamism those two will bring.
Yet, here’s the thing. Even if Scotland were able to rouse themselves and dig deep to claim a shock win, what would it actually change in the grand scheme of things?
Would anyone be any more confident in their ability to go down to Cardiff and beat Wales the following week? Probably not.
Likewise, would anyone have greater belief that they could beat either France or Ireland in the final two fixtures? Again, unlikely.
That’s where Scotland are now at with Townsend.
He has run out of road, run out of people still willing to believe he can turn this around.
Even if they were to beat England, and that’s a big if, it really doesn’t change a huge amount in the bigger picture.
All it would do in the short-term is stop the bleeding. Perhaps that’s all he can really hope for, given the weight of feeling among supporters that he should be relieved of his duties come the end of the championship.
England have plenty of quality in reserve, including 21-year-old livewire Henry Pollock
But there is a danger this could go seriously wrong.
The booing that was witnessed at the end of the capitulation against Argentina in the autumn would go up a few levels if England turn up at Murrayfield and wipe the floor with Scotland.
This a fixture and a rivalry which has produced some of the greatest moments of Townsend’s tenure as head coach, but there is also a very real danger that things turn ugly today. Seriously ugly.
He will try to rally his players to produce one last stand, one last show of defiance to derail England’s bid to win a Grand Slam.
But nothing that happens this afternoon will alter the view that he is now very much on borrowed time with Scotland.
A fixture that often lights a fuse within Townsend and his players, this could be a day when their house becomes engulfed by flames.
