When the time comes for Gregor Townsend to sit down and write his memoirs, he could devote a whole chapter to the way he’s helped shift the balance of power in the Calcutta Cup.
Having won the last four matches against their oldest rivals, Scotland will seek to make it five in a row at Twickenham today. Never before have they beaten England five times on the trot. History is within their grasp.
All in all, Townsend has led Scotland to five wins, one draw, and only one defeat in his seven matches against the Auld Enemy. It has been a period of unprecedented dominance.
Scotland do not fear this fixture in a way they perhaps once did. No longer are they haunted by the ghosts of previous failures. Townsend has awoken Scotland from their slumbers against England.
When they arrive here in south-west London, Scotland are no longer viewed as lambs walking into a Twickenham abattoir.
Of course, that hasn’t stopped the smell of blood from filling the air at English Rugby’s HQ these past few days.
Duhan van der Merwe got on the scoresheet against England in a 29-23 win back in 2023
The Scots have become accustomed to lifting the Calcutta Cup in recent years
Gregor Townsend has suffered just one defeat against England in seven matches
Scotland are viewed as wounded and vulnerable by the English rugby public after a feeble defeat to Ireland a fortnight ago. There is an expectation that the home side will feast on those wounds this afternoon.
Buoyed by victory over France last time out, the theory south of the border is that England’s pack will monster Scotland up front and lay the platform for an emphatic victory.
Writing in Mail Sport today, Sir Clive Woodward states that Steve Borthwick’s side ‘will win by a margin of 10 to 15 points’.
It’s a feeling that is shared among the vast majority of the English media, pundits and ex-players. Many of them expect Scotland not only to be beaten, but to be crushed.
While there is no question that Borthwick’s men will start the match as favourites, only the English could bill themselves as nailed-on certainties in a fixture they’ve won once in the past seven years.
Their confidence feels excessive, based more on Scotland’s shortcomings against Ireland than anything England produced in a scrappy win over France.
The reality is that England would have lost that match comfortably had the French been anywhere near their best. Les Bleus left two or three tries out there at least, with England edging it 26-25.
Scotland and England have won one and lost one coming into round three. Both of those defeats came against Ireland, albeit in a very different fashion.
Scotland were swept aside by a dominant Ireland at Murrayfield last time out
England played well for 40 minutes in Dublin and pushed Ireland, before being overpowered in the second half. Scotland, meanwhile, trailed 17-0 after half an hour and never really laid a glove on the Irish at Murrayfield.
The good news is that Finn Russell has recovered from the nasty clash of heads with Darcy Graham a fortnight ago and has been deemed fit to start at Twickenham.
Russell will once again look to be England’s tormentor-in-chief, making the men in white jerseys dance to whatever tune he chooses to conjure.
In six matches together as head coach and fly-half in the Calcutta Cup, Townsend (left) and Russell have never lost to England. With five wins and one draw, they are kryptonite to England. When you throw Duhan van der Merwe into the mix, it soon becomes clear why Scotland have enjoyed such dominance in recent years.
The big winger has scored more tries against England than any other player in the history of the Six Nations.
He has six in total, including a hat-trick in a 30-21 win at Murrayfield last year. His two at Twickenham in 2023 included one of the greatest tries in Calcutta Cup history.
Duhan is the destroyer of Red Rose dreams. Along with Russell, he is a player who will strike fear into English hearts.
Borthwick sought to seize the initiative by naming his team early this week, sticking with the twin Smith axis of Fin at fly-half and Marcus at full-back.
Scotland talisman Finn Russell has recovered from a head injury and is set to start
England want revenge. They feel embarrassed by what has happened in this fixture over the past few years. Such an appalling record against the Jocks simply won’t do.
The build-up has seen all kinds of cheap jibes aimed at Scotland. They’ve been written off and dismissed in more than a few quarters, but Townsend was reluctant to engage in any mind games when he named his team on Thursday.
Instead, he called for calm amid the chaos. Buried away in the bowels of Twickenham, in this most feverish of cauldrons, Scotland’s dressing room will be a picture of serenity as kick-off approaches. That sense of serenity may not be shared by supporters.
In pubs, clubs and living rooms all over the country, there will be the usual kaleidoscope of emotions that only the Calcutta Cup can conjure.
Townsend spoke earlier this week about the need for Scotland to get their Six Nations campaign back on track after the defeat to Ireland.
If they were to lose here against England, their campaign would be over. With a home game against Wales and a trip to Paris still to come, they would be staring down the barrel of another two-win championship.
If that’s how things were to pan out at the end of the tournament, there would be no way anyone could reasonably advance the case for Townsend to continue as head coach.
Not with the spectre of Franco Smith now looming over him. With the Glasgow Warriors head coach being strongly linked with the Wales job, it would be an awful look if the SRU allowed him to slip away from right under their noses.
England’s Luke Cowan-Dickie is put through his paces ahead of today’s crucial clash
Of all Townsend’s triumphs in the Calcutta Cup, you do get the feeling that this might just be the sweetest of the lot if Scotland can pull it off.
England haven’t beaten Scotland at Twickenham since 2017. Should Townsend and his players prolong that run even further, it would rank as one of his finest days as head coach given how his team have been written off and ridiculed by some in England in recent days.
On the other side of London, EastEnders has been front and centre these past few days with its 40th anniversary celebrations.
It featured a live episode and a prominent character being killed off. But the real drama will unfold at Twickenham this afternoon, rather than in Walford.
Never mind Martin Fowler. It’s the obituaries to Scotland’s 2025 Six Nations campaign which will be written unless they can rouse themselves to claim another famous win in these parts.
