With her admission that she did not pay her tax properly, Angela Rayner appears to have put herself on the fast-track to the exit door of government.
It is a remarkable turn of fortune for a politician who until today was considered a potential leadership candidate, should Sir Keir Starmer’s woeful poll ratings continue to fall.
But given her own outspoken criticism of former Tory ministers for not resigning over misconduct when she was in opposition – “one rule for them, another for everybody else” – she at the very least looks like a hypocrite for not resigning but in reality may still rapidly be running out of time.
Sir Keir, both in opposition and as prime minister, has vowed to clean up British politics and repeatedly said he will not stand for sleaze in his government or party. Ministers who do not uphold his standards have not remained in post – Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq and most recently Rushanara Ali have all resigned after the prime minister made it clear their positions were untenable.
Now Ms Rayner, who had recently been pushing the prime minister to fulfil a promise to give her a proper Office of the Deputy Prime Minister to reflect her growing influence in government, may also be forced to quit.
Until Wednesday, Ms Rayner had insisted she had done nothing wrong following intense pressure over her tax affairs due to media reports about her purchase of a property in Hove.
She was reported to have saved £40,000 in stamp duty on the flat because she removed her name from the deeds of a family property in her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency, meaning the Hove property is the only one she owns.
In a statement on Wednesday, she said she had taken legal advice when she bought the south coast flat, which suggested she was “liable to pay standard stamp duty” but had then sought “further advice from a leading tax counsel” following headlines about the arrangement. She learned that the initial advice had been inaccurate and that she was liable to pay additional stamp duty.
The Conservatives have pounced on Ms Rayner’s admission, with leader Kemi Badenoch calling for her to be sacked and shadow chancellor Mel Stride asserting that if she wants to make the rules, then “she should live by them”.
It seems highly unlikely that she will hold on to that deputy prime minister title, let alone her role as housing secretary. After all, you cannot be guilty of avoiding stamp duty payments on buying property and be in charge of housing.
The old adage was always that sex scandals did for Tories and money ones ended Labour careers. This seems to be coming true for Ms Rayner.
There is no sympathy within Labour for tax dodgers or avoiders, and party members do not want someone leading their government who has tried to avoid paying what is due for public services.
Ms Rayner’s explanation may wash with some, but once the political message is distilled by opponents into a simple “Rayner is a tax dodger”, sympathy will be in short supply from scores of Labour MPs defending tiny majorities.
For Ms Rayner the stakes were high because many thought there was a strong chance she could replace Sir Keir as PM. Not now, though.
Sir Keir robustly defended Ms Rayner today in PMQs but has previously had little patience for those who break the rules. It will be hard to see him sticking by his deputy prime minister for long.
