Unsatisfactory as the performances have been at the World Cup, everything still points to Scotland creating history and making it to the knockout stage of a major finals for the first time ever.
Lose 2-0 to Brazil in Miami on Wednesday and all available predictions suggest that will be enough.
Even go down by three and the odds, as things stand in the cheapened, padded-out world of modern international tournament football, remain in favour of Steve Clarke and his side securing qualification with a third-place finish in Group C.
It’s hard to feel particularly joyous about that right now, though. It’s hard to feel happy about the way Scotland are playing – particularly when it is coupled with the inevitable worry that Clarke, not exactly the great swashbuckler, will be looking at the game against the Brazilians as another backs-to-the-wall job where the focus rests more on the opposition’s strengths than any of ours.
That’s how he approached Morocco on Friday night and it was a nightmare on legs until Kieran Tierney went down with cramp on the hour and forced his hand, leading to the introduction of Ben Gannon-Doak and a change in the flow of the game.
Scotland weren’t on fire. Our entire team looked terrified. Much like they did when being taken apart 5-1 by Germany in the opening game of the last Euros and through most of that competition.
Scotland players react to their 1-0 defeat against Morocco in Boston
There’s been some crazy stuff said over the past 24 hours about how Clarke proved he’s not negative or predictable by choosing to field Tierney on the left of a midfield five, a position he is unfamiliar with.
Yes, it was unexpected. However, it was a fundamentally negative move. It was all about trying to shut down Morocco’s threat from Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz. It was part of a starting XI that saw Gannon-Doak, the only player with pace, the one real guy who offers an outball, shifted back onto the bench.
It was also a disaster. The players didn’t look like they knew what they were doing for most of the first half. What turned out to be the matchwinning goal after 70 seconds came up that left flank. No one was capable of keeping possession. Scott McTominay couldn’t get into the game. Che Adams was isolated up front .
The team just looked crippled by nerves and uncertainty on the big occasion. Again. For a while, it felt much like that mauling in Munich two years ago as Morocco poured forward.
Hard on the heels of hanging on for dear life to scrape a one-goal win over Haiti – which was more to do with a bad night at the office rather than bad planning, in fairness – it was embarrassing. And demoralising.
John McGinn goes head to head with Morocco superstart Achraf Hakimi
Steve Clarke needs to adopt a more adventurous approach against Brazil
It also confirmed that we cannot carry on trying to eke out results this way. We’re just not strong enough as a defensive unit. If the second half showed anything, it’s that setting up to get the ball upfield and actually relieve a bit of pressure represents the best way of giving ourselves a proper chance.
Whether Clarke is ready or willing to take that on board from the get-go against Brazil remains to be seen. It didn’t look like he was ready to change things up until Tierney hit the deck the other night, though, and that’s a concern.
Just as it was a concern that he didn’t make changes against Hungary in the dismal denouement of the Euros until it was way too late.
Be under no illusions, everything points to us losing to Vinicius Jnr and Co in the Hard Rock Stadium no matter how we line up.
The Brazilians have not looked an exceptional team so far – remember, they also finished fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying with eight wins from 18 – but they do have some exceptional players.
We cannot keep building game plans purely around the danger opponents possess, though. There has to be a greater emphasis on considering how we create danger too. How we work transitions.
How we get the most out of our better players rather than getting lost in trying to negate the other side. We need to stop showing teams further up the FIFA rankings such respect and start putting the emphasis on dragging them into a battle.
Clarke is working with a squad with limitations, specifically in central defence and up front. Yet, you listen to Ryan Christie talk after the Morocco defeat about the quality he sees within the group and get the impression these players do believe they can succeed at this level.
Let’s figure out a way, then, to really accentuate their positives and operate confidently on the front foot against better opposition in these games. Let’s find a way, too, to use this incredible fanbase we have in the States as a weapon.
Just consider how the atmosphere changed in the latter stages against Morocco when we decided to have a proper go. The punters need something to get them off their seats, though. Not what we’ve seen so far in tournament. And certainly not the unambitious horror shows of Euro 2024.
Winger Ben Gannon-Doak must start for Scotland against Brazil in Miami
Doak has to play, for a start. He is not perfect. He can be hit-and-miss. Clarke might not be a fan of some of his defensive work either, but he makes things happen.
He unsettles defenders. We have no one else like him. When we’re not playing well as a team, he can still deliver moments.
Keeping McTominay in advanced positions is important too. There’s no point using Adams up front alone – accepting his relative lack of goal threat because his running can pull defenders out of position – when there is no one close enough to capitalise on the spaces he creates.
For what it’s worth, a 4-2-3-1 looks like the kind of formation that could get some joy in Miami. Angus Gunn keeps goal. It’s to be hoped, though, that Aaron Hickey can return at right-back because Nathan Patterson’s lack of first-team football stands out like a sore thumb.
Andy Robertson starts on the left, naturally, with Jack Hendry central. Grant Hanley was to blame for Morocco’s goal and is a 34-year-old who lacked game time towards the end of the season at Hibs, but Clarke loves him and it’s hard to argue there’s an obvious replacement.
Lewis Ferguson’s discipline and physicality is essential as one of the two sitters, but there’s a case to be made for Kenny McLean, decent as a sub the other night, going in beside him, perhaps at the expense of Christie. From there, it’s McGinn left, Gannon-Doak right and McTominay pushed up, probably behind Adams.
John McGinn appealed for a penalty after being challenged by Morocco’s Neil El Aynaoui
For all the understandable anger over Uzbek dumpling Ilgiz Tantashev’s display as referee on Friday, the need for Scotland to change remains clear. They cannot keep playing like this.
Even if we do qualify with a backs-to-the-wall display, the scared football witnessed in that first half against Morocco and at the last Euros will only end in a timid loss to someone else in the last 32.
Christie and those team-mates he talks of would surely end up kicking themselves if they bow out of another tournament with such meek offerings, left to ponder the could-haves and should-haves like the last two European Championships, and the latter stages against the Atlas Lions showed it needn’t be so.
Sure, it was pretty chaotic, occasionally agricultural, and it didn’t result in shots on target. However, it left Morocco shaken and got the Tartan Army – and that wall of sound they can create – energised and activated.
The new repertoire of chants and songs from the support have become ingrained in the minds of anyone who spent time around them in Boston or tuned in on social media. There’s one from years gone by, though, that could maybe do with a reprise in these times of need.
It’s effective, thunderous, easy to remember after 24 pints and uniquely Scottish. Its message is unambiguous too. Gerrintaethum.
