When Arsenal fans settle down for their Christmas dinner this year, they’ll do so knowing their team are sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League table.
It wasn’t always a certainty. The Gunners were momentarily dislodged on Saturday afternoon when Manchester City romped to a 3-0 victory over West Ham United at the Etihad.
Yet a couple of hours later and normality, at least this season, was restored. Arsenal’s 1-0 win on their first visit to Everton’s new Hill Dickinson Stadium sent them right back to the top of the league, two points clear of City and three of Aston Villa.
Granted, it’s not quite the six-point lead they held at the end of November but this is the Premier League. No side goes through an entire campaign without a blip, at least not anymore. Arsenal’s blip – if you can even call it that – of course coming at Villa Park a couple of weeks ago.
But Gunners know all too well that you win nothing for being top while Santa delivers his presents. In fact, Arsenal have never won the Premier League when they’ve been in pole position at Christmas.
First, they let a lead which stretched to some eight points slip to Manchester United in 2002-03 before repeating that feat five years later in 2007-08. More recently, Arsenal fans won’t have forgotten their woes in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Arsenal’s 1-0 win on their first visit to Everton’s new Hill Dickinson Stadium sent them right back to the top of the league
But the last four times the Gunners were top at Christmas, they failed to convert their lead into a title
However the North London club’s post-Christmas slump is a trend which stretches back beyond the inception of the Premier League.
Arsenal have, according to Opta Analysis, incredibly failed to win the league on the last seven occasions they’ve led on December 25. You have to go back as far as 1947-48 to find the last time the Gunners lifted the top flight trophy after leading at Christmas.
So for all of Mikel Arteta’s plaudits – and there have been many – it looks as though being top at Christmas means nothing at all.
In fact, of the 126 seasons of English top flight football which have been played since 1888, the side at the top of the table on December 25 has only gone on to win the title on 56 occasions. That’s just 44 per cent of the time.
If you look solely at the Premier League era, 17 of the 33 (51.5 per cent) teams to have spent Christmas top have gone on to win the league.
And bigger leads than Arsenal’s have been blown in years gone-by. Take Newcastle United’s capitulation in 1995-96 as a prime example.
When the clock struck midnight on 25 December, 1995, Kevin Keegan’s Magpies looked as though they were on the verge of ending their 69-year wait for the Premier League title. 10 points they sat clear of Man United.
Man United overturned a 12-point deficit on Newcastle United to win the league in 1996
Two days later they faced the Red Devils and lost 2-0, but they would go on to restore their lead to some 12 points before Sir Alex Ferguson played his famous mind games on the Newcastle boss.
‘I’d love it if we beat them,’ Keegan blurted after his side blew their lead in April 1996.
They didn’t, and United went on to lift the Premier League trophy after an almost extraordinary comeback.
History therefore clearly suggests that it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Arsenal will end their more than 20-year wait for the Premier League trophy this campaign.
But don’t be fooled into thinking Mikel Arteta isn’t aware of this. The Spaniard was asked only last week about what being top of the league after 18 matches means for his side’s title aspirations.
His response: ‘What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that.
‘That’s very, very difficult to do in this league and that means that the team is constantly there. Enjoy the process of winning and you’re going to have to go to difficult places, you’re going to have difficult moments, we have dealt with a lot of things already and we are there.
The title race could come down to April 18, when City and Arsenal face each other at the Etihad
‘And what we’re going to do is work for the next game, try to improve and make sure that everybody is with that spirit and energy and enjoying that.’
For Arteta, this season is make-or-break.
For all of his good work since he took over a dire Arsenal side in 2019, the club are without a trophy for some five years since they beat Chelsea in the FA Cup final of 2020.
They may be in pole position to end that drought, though they’ll need to buck an historic trend to do so.
