As we transition from summer to autumn, we typically see the jet stream moving further south and strengthening in September, which gives rise to more unsettled, stormy weather to move in from the Atlantic.
So far this September we’ve already seen more than the expected rainfall for the whole month for several parts of the UK.
As we head deeper into the autumn months most forecast models indicate an increased chance of a ‘wetter than average’ spell until November in the UK.
However, there is always a lot of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts, and these should be interpreted as likely trends rather than expected conditions.
It’s unlikely we’ll see a repeat of September 2024 which was the wettest on record for 10 English counties, including Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Wiltshire. They received more than three times their expected September rainfall leading to widespread flooding.
