Israel was attacked with several waves of Iranian missiles hours after a messy ceasefire deal was announced by Donald Trump leaving Benjamin Netanyahu to decide whether, in reality, now is the time for Israel to end its campaign against Tehran.
The Iranian salvos killed three Israelis in the southern desert city of Beer Sheva and while Israel has successfully eroded much of `Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the US has helped out with bunker buster bombs attacking its most sensitive site in Fordow, Iran’s government remains intact.
Iranian state TV said it would observe the ceasefire, which could take a day to set in as both Israel and Iran wound down their operations.
Iran’s foreign minister said his country would stop firing missiles at 4am local time if Israel also stopped its attacks, but that statement was followed by Tehran launching up to five waves of attacks in the subsequent four hours.
“On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR’,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social site.
“The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later,” Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X.
Top White House officials were apparently caught off guard by Trump’s sudden announcement of a “ceasefire” following Iranian retaliatory attacks against the vast US air base in el-Udeid, Qatar.
The attacks were telegraphed in diplomatic communications to the US and Qatar ahead of time and were entirely symbolic. All but one of the incoming missiles from Iran were shot down and there was no significant damage done.
The Israeli military issued two evacuation warnings in less than two hours to residents of areas in Tehran, one late on Monday and one early on Tuesday in a sign that Israel intended to continue its offensive against Iran at least until the official ceasefire is supposed to begin – and there was no clarity on when that might be.
Given how badly shaken Israelis have been by the 12 days of Iranian missile and drone attacks it is unlikely that Netanyahu will not at least pause Israel’s campaign. Israel has been paralysed throughout the last 12 days. Israeli military officials estimate that Iran could keep up the current levels of attack with up to 20 missiles a day, almost indefinitely.
The Israelis have attacked Iran’s nuclear capacity, missiles programme, military leadership and had recently targeted the institutions of internal oppression, most notably the Basij militia. Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that the campaign was, in part, intended to cause regime change by calling on Iranians to rise against the theocracy that rules them.
Early in Israel’s unilateral attacks on Iran, he said: “There’s one thing Khamenei’s regime fears more than Israel. You know what it is? It’s you – the people of Iran.
“That’s why they spend so much time and money trying to crush your hopes and curb your dreams. Well, I say to you this: don’t let your dreams die. I hear the whispers: Women, Life, Freedom,” Netanyahu said. A truce now stops well short of his longer term strategic intent to enact regime change in Iran.
In agreeing a ceasefire, Iran is clearly intent on preserving the Islamic Republic but it will next face demands for highly intrusive inspections by the IAEA nuclear watchdog as part of any longer deal. Conversely, the Israeli attacks have also demonstrated that the best guarantee of Iranian security might be to develop a nuclear weapon.
It is still not clear where Trump stands on the issue of regime change. At the start of the Israeli campaign he boasted that the US knew where Iran’s supreme leader Aliu Khamenei was sheltering and said the US had not decided, yet, to eliminate him.
Now the US president has praise for all concerned on his social media.
“This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”
His excitement may be premature. Iran will now be sure that it will need a nuclear weapon to defend against future Israeli attacks while Israel has bought itself a temporary respite – even if a ceasefire holds.
