US President Donald Trump’s pre-election promises to end the war in Ukraine in less than 24 hours – and before his inauguration – have proved empty.
Keith Kellog, Mr Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, says the administration’s new goal is to stop the fighting in 100 days.
But details on how this will be achieved remain scant. Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed this is because speaking openly about his plans would undermine his negotiating position. His detractors, however, say this is a cover for a lack of plan.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, have both expressed a willingness to speak with Mr Trump, though both have their own demands if peace is to be achieved.
Below, The Independent looks at the factors at play and why a peace deal could prove elusive.
Sanctions
Two days after Mr Trump’s inauguration, the US president gave the first brief insight into his plans.
“If a deal is not reached, I will have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and other participating countries,” he posted on his social media platform Truth Social.
“We can do it the easy way or the hard way,” he said, adding: “The easy way is always better.”
A week previously, Bloomberg reported that the incoming administration had begun forming its sanctions strategy on Russia, one that included offering targeted relief to Russian oil producers to incentivise negotiations or expanding sanctions to ramp up pressure.
It is no surprise that a notoriously-transactional Mr Trump, who has spoken at length about tariffs, appears focused on leveraging the financial might of the US to end the war.
Whether it will succeed, however, is unclear.
Russia’s economy appears to have soaked up the brunt of Western sanctions over the past nearly three years, though the long-term implications of putting an economy on a war footing could prove dangerous.
But additional pressure from Mr Trump, off the back of a particularly aggressive sanctions package in Joe Biden’s final days in office, could force Mr Putin to think more carefully.
Territorial concessions
Russia controls a little under 19 per cent of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula and parts of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukraine controls a slither of the Russian border region of Kursk.
During his last annual end-of-year conference, Mr Putin called on Ukraine to withdraw from those four Ukrainian regions and for the west to lift all sanctions.
European leaders have consistently dismissed this possibility as rewarding the Russian leader for his land grab but Mr Trump appears more open to the idea.
His vice-president, JD Vance, has spoken about a demilitarised zone patrolled by Western-backed forces. Mr Trump says no US troops will be involved.
The stumbling blocks here are numerous.
The Kremlin has said it does not want Nato forces near Russian troops in occupied Ukraine. Indeed, Mr Putin claimed his invasion of Ukraine was because Nato was trying to get too close to Russia.
Mr Zelensky, meanwhile, may be willing to accept the loss of some territory but it is unlikely he will give up land currently not under Russian control, which includes much of the four regions Mr Putin is claiming. Likewise, Mr Putin will not want Ukrainian troops in Kursk.
In the meantime, Russian forces are creeping forwards in eastern Ukraine. Some will question why Mr Putin would stand his troops down when they are advancing, though losses are high.
Security guarantees
This is likely to be the most contentious issue. Previous agreements to end the fighting in 2014 and 2015, after Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, have failed, as have many more attempts.
There is widespread belief that Mr Putn cannot be trusted to abide by a ceasefire. It is possible he will simply use the pause in fighting to rest his forces before invading again.
Ukraine believes accession to Nato would deter another invasion since Article 5 necessitates the defence of an attacked member. But Mr Trump has ruled that out.
Mr Putin not only opposes any Nato membership for Ukraine but says the country must become a neutral state and drastically reduce its military forces. That would effectively strip Ukraine of its sovereign right to choose with whom it allies itself. It would also make Ukraine an easier target for future Russian invasions.
Ukraine says the US must offer security guarantees and that European assurances alone are not enough.
Mr Zelensky has called on Mr Trump to give Ukraine more weapons but in the forms of loans. Others have suggested Mr Trump backs the transfer of roughly $300 billion (£240bn) in frozen Russian assets so Ukraine can arm itself.
Russia’s alliance with China, Iran and North Korea
The most significant difference between Mr Trump’s first and second terms, with regards to constructing a foreign policy, is the interconnectedness of nations hostile to the US.
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are more aligned than ever. They have helped one another evade sanctions; they have backed each other’s wars; they have sought to pull other countries away from the purview of the US-led west.
Mr Trump could look to disrupt these alliances to slow support for Russia’s war, or he could put pressure on these allies to stop funding Mr Putin.
