The Carabao Cup final has never had so much on the line, a weight that can be sensed in the very shifts in moods. Over the build-up, Pep Guardiola has been trying to figure out a few things. Does he go more attacking, as Manchester City have been doing recently, or repeat the constrained approach from drawing 1-1 with Arsenal in September? If the former, is it with this open midfield that he has been trying, or was Real Madrid too much of a lesson? What would such an approach in a marquee game even say?
Such variables give a tactical obsessive like Mikel Arteta a lot to think about, but he is at least sure of his own structure. That won’t shift. The main question will be over personnel, and how much that changes the emphasis of the team; whether it’s Riccardo Calafiori or Piero Hincapie at left-back, for example. Martin Odegaard is expected to return to the bench, and Jurrien Timber may start.
Arsenal, in short, have a lot less to think about. That is very different to when the two sides qualified for this final, way back at the start of February. At that point, the trophy was seen as psychologically crucial to Arsenal sustaining both a momentum and the idea of superiority over City, a key part of the wider pursuit for the first Premier League title in 22 years. The weight was all the greater since it had looked like this final could be the first in a grand and unprecedented English series, maybe four or five matches to decide everything.
The very week before the final has put paid to that. City have already been eliminated from the Champions League in that match against Madrid, which followed a frustrated 1-1 draw at West Ham to allow Arsenal an even greater gap in the title race.
Their hopes in the Premier League haven’t gone yet, but their aura has. The old City sense of foreboding isn’t there.
This Arsenal team may badly need to win their first trophy together, but it doesn’t quite feel as essential when this City don’t look like the trophy machine of before.
As such, there’s been a twist before the game starts. It now feels like this Carabao Cup final is bigger for City than it is for Arsenal.
That would have sounded absurd for most of the season – and the past few years – especially with how Guardiola has repeatedly subjected his former assistant to second-places, but that’s how this season is going. The fact everyone is talking about this being the City manager’s last season, which the club still describe as “speculation”, only adds to that. Guardiola certainly won’t want to leave on a barren campaign, in any case.
Winning a fourth Carabao Cup for the coach and a historic ninth for City would be valuable in of itself, but more significant is what it might do for everything else. It would be a reminder to Arsenal of what the order has been. It would put the league leaders back in their box, after a period when City haven’t even beaten Arteta’s side in three years.
Maybe most crucial of all, however, is that it would create new doubt for Arsenal just at the point when confidence is building; when Max Dowman seems to have helped banish all the angst. Talk of the quadruple is tentatively rising. This could swiftly end that, but do more. If the six-year wait for silverware were to go on that bit longer, into at least May, it creates greater space for collapse.
This is nevertheless the prospect facing City, too. To see two trophies disappear in two matches, alongside the increasing distance to top spot, could be debilitating. From that, if City were to lose on Sunday, it isn’t impossible that they fall apart.
Duly, City have constantly looked a team on a thin line on the actual pitch. It is like almost every game can go either way. There are spells when spectacular attacking is suggested, only for a defensive fallibility to immediately be exposed. City often sublime and ridiculous in the same five minutes of football, as was seen against Madrid.
Much will depend on the mood going into this game, which is said to be one of focus and trying to remind everyone of the force that this team has been. Down at Arsenal’s Colney base, a mere 13 miles from Wembley, a first final since the 2020 FA Cup win is being downplayed. There is a calmness, which many say has been welcome. This season has been characterised by ramping up most of the matches, after all. Perhaps a softening mood is also natural, given this is a break from all the noise around the title.
The greater gap in the league of course helps that, especially as Arsenal now know they will be nine points ahead of City until 12 April at the earliest. It was why last weekend was so crucial. Of course, this weekend might end up being seen as even more crucial, depending on how it goes.
Arsenal right now feel good about the title race but that can dramatically change if their main chasers beat them to again shift that momentum. Out of that, this is yet another Carabao Cup final that is cast as being about more than the Carabao Cup, as so many are. It is about what it can mean for the future.
That’s partly why Newcastle United’s win last year was so distinctive, since it was about the trophy alone. You arguably have to go back to Swansea City in 2013 for similar.
Consequently, as regards Arsenal, you don’t really need to read the same old lines about how Chelsea’s 2005 victory invigorated the Jose Mourinho era, or Brian Clough’s quote about how the Anglo-Scottish Cup gave his great Nottingham Forest team “a shot of something positive that only a trophy, whatever it is, can bring”. The times are different. The situation is different.
This is nevertheless the first League Cup final involving both of the top two since 1978, and a meeting between Liverpool and that Forest team. Clough’s side won to eventually complete a League Cup and title double.
That season was the first time the feat was managed, and both City and Arsenal are hoping to make this the 12th. City have already managed it four times, with Guardiola responsible for three of those.
As befits the occasion in the modern era, however, both sides are also going for more. City are aiming for a domestic treble. Arsenal are going for the quadruple. The League Cup has never had so much on the line, which marks quite a shift. The final itself may well mark another.
