Nottingham Forest supporters have experienced some toxic times over the years but nothing felt quite so furious or blood-thirsty as how quickly they turned on Ange Postecoglou on Thursday night when the third goal went in against Midtjylland.
‘You’re getting sacked in the morning,’ echoed around the City Ground. So, too, did ‘We’re on the p*** with Nuno,’ in reference to their beloved former manager.
Some fans, as they stormed towards the exit, gestured towards owner Evangelos Marinakis as if to say, ‘Well, what are you going to do about it?’
Well, what is he going to do about it?
Postecoglou will be sacked at some point, managers always are, and it remains to be seen when that axe will fall on a manager who is the club’s first in 100 years not to win a single game in his first six matches and now faces a run of fixtures that reads Newcastle, Chelsea, Porto, Bournemouth and Manchester United.
How many of those does he win? How many points does he get?
Ange Postecoglou is Nottingham Forest’s first manager in 100 years not to win any of his first six games at the club
Postecoglou loses his cool during Forest’s 3-2 loss at home to Midtylland in the Europa League
Owner Evangelos Marinakis looks pained as Forest slump to defeat on Thursday – the Greek surely won’t tolerate a long winless run
Yet the more pressing question is this one: what else did Forest and Marinakis expect? They fired Nuno Espirito Santo knowing how much he was loved by the fans for rejuvenating Forest and taking them back into Europe. Then they hired Postecoglou knowing the Australian lost 22 league games last season with Tottenham and finished 17th.
They knew what style of football he brings, its rewards but, more importantly, the risks.
WHAT HAS ANGE CHANGED?
Everything, everywhere, all at once. Postecoglou opted not to bed his style in bit by bit but instead thrust his philosophy on to his squad, regardless of how much better suited they are to how the team used to play.
The biggest shift is simply how much more of the ball Postecoglou wants Forest to have. Even Nuno attempted to move away from Forest’s reliance on sitting deep and countering at the end of last season when teams figured out that once you shut that down, they had little else to offer, but that is nothing compared to Angeball.
In Postecoglou’s second Premier League game in charge against Burnley, Forest put up their highest-ever possession share since their return to the Premier League, at 63 per cent. They broke it again against Sunderland with 64 per cent. Against Midtjylland, it was still up at 61 per cent.
Forest managed 631 passes against Burnley, their most in a league game since promotion, and the 578 against Sunderland was more than they ever managed under Nuno.
Since Ange took charge, only Liverpool have attempted more passes in the league. Only the champions have racked up more sequences of 10 or more passes in open play, while only Liverpool and City have had more sequences that end with either a shot or a touch in the box.
They are running more than ever too, even though they’re having more of the ball. The 70 miles Forest’s players ran against the Clarets was more than they ever covered under Nuno.
So, they are controlling the ball and games high up the pitch. But, still, they are not winning them.
SO, WHY ISN’T IT WORKING?
‘I believe we are on the right track,’ insisted Postecoglou after the Europa League defeat on Thursday night.
Results and toxicity suggest otherwise, of course, but there is perhaps a shred of comfort to be taken by some of Forest’s underlying numbers – and less from others.
It’s not like they’re not having shots. The 44 they have managed under Postecoglou in the league is bettered only by Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Arsenal. They are averaging more efforts on goal than under Nuno.
They just aren’t creating great chances. Only 2.98 expected goals (xG) from those 44 shots equates to the second-lowest xG per shot in the division. They have scored just once in the league and seven times in all competitions from nearly 100 shots.
A look at their shot map (below) reveals how many of them are potshots from outside the box, with few coming from the danger zones around the six-yard area.
But when they do create good chances, they just don’t take them. Their pitiful shot conversion rate of just 2.3 per cent under Postecoglou in the Premier League is, unsurprisingly, the worst in the division in that time.
They just can’t score and, as we’ll come to, they can’t keep them out at the other end. That is a film Tottenham fans have seen many, many times.
Forest are having plenty of shots under Postecoglou, but many of them are speculative efforts from distance
BUT WHY IS IT GOING SO BADLY?
There are a few caveats. Postecoglou has been without key defenders Ola Aina and Murillo through injury, the latter picking up another problem on Thursday night.
Morgan Gibbs-White is yet to find the form of last season that almost secured a £60million move to Spurs.
Chris Wood, so reliable last campaign, missed two great chances against Sunderland that would have changed the game and, perhaps, the mood around the place.
So, too, the fact that Forest have held the lead in three of Postecoglou’s six games but failed to win any of them and, in two of them, succumbed to late goals. Is the fact that a squad that was left on its knees at the end of last season is now being asked to run further than ever, in more competitions than ever, perhaps playing a part?
It all, really, comes down to a group of players still coming to terms with what’s being asked of them. The likes of Callum Hudson-Odoi who thrived at running into space behind defences are now trying to find ways to play through them.
I was at Forest’s last two games against Sunderland and Midtjylland and it was vastly different from the Nuno days, seeing centre backs on the ball around the halfway line.
Nikola Milenkovic, for example, touched the ball 35 times and made 27 passes in the home victory against Brentford under Nuno at the start of the season and nearly all of them were in his own half. Against Sunderland, he had nearly 90 touches and played nearly 80 passes, with many of them near the halfway line or in the Black Cats’ half.
A look at his touchmaps from both games shows just how different his role has become.
Nikola Milenkovic’s touchmap from Forest’s 3-1 win over Brentford under Nuno in August, in which he barely left his own half
And Milenkovic’s touchmap from Forest’s recent loss to Sunderland, showing how much more Postecoglou is demanding from the Serb in possession
Postecoglou is asking players to do things they are not used to doing. And it’s leaving them exposed.
From their own corner against Midtjylland, Forest lost possession and the Danish side broke at pace. In the blink of an eye, there was a three-on-one to make it 3-1. How often have Spurs fans seen pictures like this?
Forest end up conceding a three-on-one from their own corner – a familiar sight for those who followed Postecoglou’s Spurs last season
DEFENDING THE INDEFENSIBLE
For all the changes and the missed chances, the main reason that Forest have failed to win a single game under Postecoglou is because his sides simply cannot defend, especially at set-pieces.
It happened at Tottenham, now it’s happening here. Since Big Ange came to the Premier League, no manager has seen their side concede more goals from set-pieces than him, eight clear of any other head coach.
The two Forest conceded that way against Arsenal were more excusable, one a 25-yard bullet and the other an intricate training-ground routine by the division’s set-piece masters.
Not so at the last two games I witnessed, where three goals came from the simplest of balls into the box.
Omar Alderete was left completely unmarked at the back post to tap in Sunderland’s winner, Midtjylland centre back Ousmane Diao was afforded the same courtesy and skipper Mads Bech turned in a corner flicked on at the near post.
Sunderland’s Omar Alderete is left completely unmarked in the box at a set-piece and is free to score the winner for the Black Cats last weekend
It’s the same story against Midtylland, with Ousmane Diao able to pounce after a flick-on to the back post
It’s simple stuff and now the fans have turned. At least Spurs supporters had those heady early days of thrill-seeking excitement before the Premier League wheels fell off. Forest had the first half against Real Betis.
Postecoglou must hope those decent underlying numbers come good, and soon, because when it gets as toxic as this, it’s clear time is running out.
