Algeria and Austria are both vying for a place in the World Cup knockout stages as they clash in a fascinating Group J finale.
The top and bottom of the group have already been cemented, with Lionel Messi powering Argentina to top spot with five goals in the first two matches, while debutants Jordan are heading home after failing to yet register a point.
But it’s still all to play for in second and third, with Algeria and Austria each picking up three points against Jordan while similarly succumbing to some Messi magic.
There is a scenario where both teams can progress so, with that, here’s everything you need to know about Group J’s knockout round permutations:
What do Algeria need to qualify?
Algeria need to avoid defeat to ensure their progression into the World Cup knockouts. Which result would be more beneficial to them, however, is interestingly up for debate.
A win will take them into second place, setting up a round of 32 clash against the winner of Group H. That will likely mean they face Spain, who are one of the favourites to go all the way this year.
But if they draw and seal qualification as one of the eight-best third-placed teams, they will face either the winner of Group A – which is Mexico – or the winner of Group G, Belgium.
Defeat, on the other hand, will put their World Cup progression at serious risk. Losing by anything more than one goal will put them out of contention to go through in third due to poor goal difference, but the likelihood is they would be bumped out by the group stage’s conclusion regardless.
What do Austria need to qualify?
Any result other than defeat for Austria would similarly be enough to progress to the knockouts. Victory will see them finish as group runners-up, as would a draw due to their superior goal difference.
The only scenario where Algeria can leapfrog them into second is if they lose. There is still a chance can Austria progress on three points from third if the defeat is a slender one, with their goal difference currently zero.
As mentioned above, this eventuality would probably offer a better round of 32 draw, but the high risk of dropping into third will not look enticing for Austria. Weirdly enough, a draw seems to suit both teams best – don’t be surprised if this one has an oddly uncompetitive feel to it.
Head-to-head prominence over goal difference
If teams finish on the same number of points their standing in the group will be determined by the head-to-head record against the nation they are level with. If one team tied on points with another has beaten them in the group stage, the winners will finish higher up the table.
Where multiple teams are level on points, a mini-league is created, removing the results against the remaining teams. Those tied teams are ranked by points won in the games involving each other, then by goal difference, followed by goals scored. If that does not split them, the next criteria is goal difference followed by goals scored for the group overall.
Any other tiebreakers?
If teams are still level on points following head-to-head results, goal difference and goals scored then the Team Conduct Score (TCS) comes into play. It is basically a fair play score and is rated based on the amount of cards a team has collected. Each team, including managers and backroom staff, started on zero and were deducted points throughout the group stage as follows:
- Yellow card -1
- Red card for two yellows -3
- Straight red card -4
- Yellow then straight red -5
The closer to zero, the better the score. If the teams are still level, whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June’s published update will go through.
How are the top eight third place finishers determined?
The top eight third place finishers will be decided on which teams have accumulated the most points.
Should eight or more nations finish third with the same number of points, the nations who progress will then be determined by goal difference.
In all likelihood, teams that finish third with four points or higher will go through, the teams on three points will need the best possible goal difference to progress.
