In many ways, Oleksandr Usyk’s rematch with Daniel Dubois this weekend is the natural next step through a heavyweight landscape that has been as scenic over the last two years as it has in decades. The simplest sell for this bout is that Usyk is the unified champion and Dubois is the IBF title holder; all of the belts, as ever, ‘must’ be unified (even though they never stay that way), with the winner at Wembley Stadium set to be crowned undisputed champion.
Undisputed status eluded all heavyweights for 24 years until Usyk outpointed Tyson Fury 14 months ago, yet the unbeaten Ukrainian only held that status for a matter of weeks before he gave up the IBF belt; in honouring a rematch with Fury, Usyk allowed interim IBF champion Dubois to be elevated, and the young Briton retained the official version of the belt with a demolition of Anthony Joshua in September.
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These are the basic facts, which position Usyk, 38, and Dubois, 27, as opponents in London this weekend. There is also their history: a unified-title fight two years ago, when Usyk climbed off the canvas to stop Dubois in Poland, with the latter’s camp swearing that the low blow against the southpaw had in fact been a legal body shot.
But to dive deeper is to realise that Usyk vs Dubois 2 is actually a somewhat awkward match-up.
Dubois is an evolved version of the competitor who arguably threatened Usyk in one major moment in their first fight – but otherwise struggled to put a dent in the former cruiserweight king – and a victory for the home fighter would perhaps be the ‘better’ outcome for the division. Usyk may well retire regardless of the result, but a win for Dubois would feel more like a changing of the guard and allow fresh match-ups, after four years in which Usyk’s bouts have solely come against Fury, Joshua and Dubois, all of whom he will have boxed twice by the end of this week.
Yet that recent history is also why a victory for Dubois might lack some weight. Joshua got two stabs at defeating Usyk, one in 2021 and one in 2022, and was beaten across the 12-round distance both times. Fury also had two goes and got closer than “AJ” to accomplishing the goal, yet the “Gypsy King” was still outpointed last May and in December.
The decisions to make those rematches were understandable, and although the same applies this weekend, there is a feeling that is difficult to shake: that the British battalion will seemingly get chance after chance until one can finally beat Usyk. And if Dubois does at Wembley, what will it mean at this point?
Of course a win against a man who doesn’t know how to lose would be impressive, especially if Dubois can secure a stoppage, but Usyk’s legacy as a two-weight undisputed champion and the greatest fighter of his generation is secure itself. And at 38, if the Olympic champion gets old overnight as fighters often do, won’t that asterisk forever be pinned above a hypothetical Dubois win?
There is also the matter that Dubois had the chance at a fresh match-up in February, only to withdraw from his planned title defence against Joseph Parker on two days’ notice, citing illness. There was the opportunity to reschedule that bout after Parker crushed Martin Bakole, but attention conveniently turned to Usyk.
Understandably so, of course, especially in a business like boxing. A shot at redemption, undisputed status, and the biggest payday of Dubois’s career were always going to trump what was on offer in a title defence against Parker. That’s just how this sport works.
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And an adjacent issue to all this, so to speak, is the knock-on effect that a Dubois win could have on Fury vs Joshua.
Dubois could trump Fury and Joshua as the best heavyweight in Britain right now, if he does what the veteran pair could not. Some would argue that Dubois’s present superiority over Joshua was confirmed with his performance against the former champion in September, but there would surely be no room for debate if Dubois were to leave Wembley victorious on Saturday. The issue here is that the lustre of Fury vs Joshua, which has already diminished over the last six years, would suffer again. Not that Dubois will care.
And so here we are, on the cusp of an undisputed heavyweight title fight and rematch that makes all the sense in the world, yet which also carries an awkward edge.
Still, Dubois has the power to smooth out that edge on Saturday. If he does, there will ironically be nothing smooth to the scene at all; it will be more destruction from “Dynamite” at Wembley, and an image of Usyk that no one has seen before. Therein lies the true intrigue of Usyk vs Dubois 2.
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