Vladimir Putin has “only one card” left to play – to prolong the killing in Ukraine, according to a senior source in Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential office as Europe held top-level talks ahead of the Alaska summit this week.
Zelensky has not been invited to Friday’s meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. And there are deep concerns that the US president will emerge from the encounter taking an even harder line on Ukraine.
Europe’s leaders, including Keir Starmer, have been corralling US officials and White House insiders, and met virtually with the Oval Office to try to persuade Trump to use the leverage he has over Putin to get him to agree to a ceasefire.
Trump told those gathered on the call that he would push Putin for a ceasefire deal at the meeting in Anchorage, but Zelensky voiced concerns that the Russian president, not for the first time, was “bluffing” about wanting a path to peace.
He told the US president that Putin “is trying to apply pressure … on all sectors of the Ukrainian front” to show he is capable of occupying the whole of Ukraine.
A source close to Zelensky told The Independent that Putin only has one goal in mind: “The main thing for Putin is to try to trade land for ceasefires. The ability to kill and to prolong war is the only card Putin has. So, he’s trying to play this card.”
In February this year, Trump lost his temper with Zelensky, yelling at him that he didn’t “have the cards” in the conflict with Russia during an infamous press conference in the Oval Office.
Now, Ukraine insists, it’s Putin who has the weaker hand.
Europe’s leaders tried to reinforce that message to Trump, pushing the idea that sanctions really are having an effect on Russia. They emphasised this so that Trump feels confident to threaten further economic sanctions against countries that import Russian oil – and even to renew arms shipments to Ukraine – in his effort to persuade Putin to suspend military operations.
“Trump does want to finish the killings, it’s true, and he has the power to do it. So the question is, for him, how to do the right thing,” the Ukrainian presidential adviser said.
So far, Putin has said any ceasefire would have to be premised on the condition that Ukraine agrees to cede four provinces – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – to Russia along with Crimea. He also wants assurances that Ukraine will not use any pause in the fighting to rearm.
Ukraine has long agreed to a minimum 30-day unconditional ceasefire, and insists it is willing to discuss grounds for peace.
As speculation mounts over what Friday’s summit will achieve, Trump has indicated that he agrees with Russia and that Ukraine should be prepared to agree “land swaps” of Ukrainian territory.
Europe, the UK and Ukraine have ruled out such concessions – especially as part of any deal struck between Russia and the US without Ukraine being present.
Despite the fanfare over the meeting in Anchorage, the US actually has less power, and therefore less influence over the outcome of the talks, as a result of forcing Kyiv and Europe into taking on more of the burden of helping Ukraine to defend its territory.
Trump cut all military aid to Ukraine earlier this year. The total US military spend there has amounted to €114bn (£84bn), which is dwarfed by the current pledged contribution by the UK and the EU, which stands at €250bn (£216bn).
Ukraine’s Nato allies now have to buy US weapons to supply Kyiv, but there are no signs that the US could ban that revenue stream.
Russia has seen its second-largest oil client, India, hit with 50 per cent US tariffs, with 25 per cent imposed in an effort to convince Putin to respond to Trump’s ceasefire proposals. And if the US decided to open the taps of free military aid again, it could tip the tactical balance rapidly in Ukraine’s favour.
The UK and Europe want Trump to spell this out to Putin.
“Zelensky supports the ceasefire,” the Ukrainian source said. “The problem is that Putin rejects it. The majority of Ukrainians want to see peace, it’s true, but at the same time the majority of Ukrainians reject Russian claims on the territory.”
