People granted asylum in the UK will only be allowed to stay in the country temporarily, in a major change of policy to be announced by the home secretary on Monday.
Shabana Mahmood is expected to declare that the era of permanent protection for refugees is over, as she seeks to reduce asylum claims and small boat crossings.
Under the plans, those granted asylum will be returned to their home country when it is deemed safe and their status will be regularly reviewed.
Currently, refugee status in the UK lasts for five years, after which they can apply for indefinite leave to remain and have a route to citizenship.
There are currently some temporary schemes for those fleeing the conflict in Ukraine. This was initially for three years but extensions have been granted.
Government insiders are describing a move to temporary status for all successful asylum seekers as a “significant shift”.
The policy has been copied from Denmark, where a government led by the centre-left Social Democrats has presided over one of the toughest asylum and immigration systems in Europe.
In Denmark, refugees are given temporary residence permits, typically of two years, and in effect have to re-apply for asylum when they expire.
A previous presumption in the Danish system to extend permits was scrapped.
Even for those who are allowed to extend multiple times, the route to citizenship has grown longer and harder.
The Danish approach is admired by UK government ministers, including Mahmood, who point out that as the Social Democrat party’s immigration policies hardened their poll ratings rose – and those of a populist right-wing movement, the People’s Party, fell.
The home secretary believes that unless Labour takes similar decisions then “darker forces” could thrive in the UK.
Last week, the revealed that Mahmood had sent senior Home Office officials to Denmark to see what lessons could be learned from their system.
And it was not just temporary status for refugees that caught the eyes of her officials.
They also looked at Denmark’s greater restrictions on “family reunion” – when refugees want to bring their spouses, partners or children to the country.
Mahmood believes Denmark’s policies serve as a disincentive for people to seek asylum in the first place and is impressed that successful claims are at a 40-year low.
And she believes that what she sees as the current generosity of the UK system is acting as a magnet, and driving small boat crossings.
In a social media video trailing her announcement, Mahmood said: “We will always be a country that gives sanctuary to people who are fleeing danger but we must restore order and control.”
But copying Denmark too closely would be controversial.
Four years ago the Danish government planned to return around 200 refugees to Syria even while a civil war raged – because it said some parts of Damascus were safe.
And Mahmood’s new approach will certainly face opposition from some Labour MPs.
When it was revealed that Denmark was being used as a model for tougher rules in the UK, Labour’s Clive Lewis told the the system in that country echoed “talking points of the far right.”
And he said “progressive” voters may migrate to more left-wing parties, such as the Greens, if Labour goes down this route.
Another Labour left-winger, Nadia Whittome, said following in Denmark’s path would be a “dead end – morally, politically and electorally”.
But the understands Mahmood will issue a warning to her sceptical Labour colleagues in a speech to Parliament on Monday.
She will suggest that while some of her plans may seem immoderate, the alternative could be a further rise in support for Reform UK.
She is expected to say: ‘”If you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”
The home secretary believes Denmark is an example to emulate because its asylum policy – summed up as “less in more out” – has been achieved while remaining inside the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
But both she and her opposite number in Denmark – Rasmus Stoklund – want to see reforms and to rein in “activist judges” who might give too much emphasis to the ECHR’s provisions on “rights to a family life” when deciding on deportation cases.
She is expected to address this in her statement on Monday.
Both Reform UK and the Conservatives argue that it would be more effective to leave the ECHR entirely.
And rather than giving refugees temporary status, Reform UK say they would detain and deport cross-channel arrivals.
The Conservatives argue that the only way to stop small boats is to bring back their scheme to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, which was scrapped by Labour.
The home secretary is likely to acknowledge on Monday that the UK’s borders are “out of control”.
Simply adopting new policies is unlikely in itself to restore the trust of voters tempted by Nigel Farage.
But if Mahmood’s policies actually reduce numbers, she will hope her party will be granted permission to be heard not just on migration but on other policies too.
