The UK must be prepared for “unprecedented” extreme weather conditions as worst-case scenarios for global warming cannot be ruled out, climate advisers have warned.
Events like heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and flooding – which the UK has already started to see with increasing frequency – will only become more regular and intense, the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC) said.
The group has urged the government to ensure the country is prepared for at least 2C of global warming by 2050, which is 0.5C higher than the long-term 1.5C temperature goal of the international climate treaty, the Paris Agreement.
Ministers must set out stronger objectives and targets for protecting health, homes, food security, infrastructure and key public services “at a minimum” in the face of this challenge, the CCC wrote in a letter to the government.
It warned that global warming of 2C above pre-industrial levels will lead to more frequent, powerful and increasingly unprecedented extremes of weather hitting the UK.
The chances of a heatwave occurring each year will double, while the time spent under drought conditions across England is also expected to double.
Sea levels will rise, peak rainfall across the UK is expected to increase by up to 10 to 15 per cent on the wettest days, and peak river flows will increase by up to 40 per cent for some catchments, raising the risk of flooding.
The risk of wildfires will also rise, with increases in days with conditions highly favourable for blazes to break out, while wildfire season will extend into the autumn, the experts warned.
While the committee notes that it continues to believe that the 1.5C target is possible, it added “prudent risk management needs to consider a wider range of possible worse outcomes”.
Faster rates of global warming between the present day and 2050 could cause the 2C threshold to be breached by mid-century, the experts find, while temperature rises of 4C by the end of the century also cannot be ruled out.
The UK has seen its hottest summer on record this year, with much of the country in drought and one of the worst harvests on record.
The period was immediately preceded by 18 months of record-wet weather, and before that temperatures topped 40C in the UK for the first time in 2022, causing a spike in heat deaths and destructive wildfires.
The CCC said new homes, electricity networks and other infrastructure that is expected to last for decades must be built with the potential to be adapted to cope with temperatures of as much as 4C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
It has called for a framework of clear long-term objectives for adapting the UK to climate change by 2050, driven forward with targets every five years, and for government departments to be clearly accountable for delivering them.
Baroness Brown, chair of the adaptation committee for the CCC, said: “People in the UK are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, and we owe it to them to prepare, and also to help them prepare.
“We need to see the government treating adaptation with the same urgency that we have been able to treat cutting emissions. Both are absolutely essential and must go hand in hand.”
Dr Douglas Parr, Greenpeace UK chief scientist, said: “Alarm bells should be ringing in government that doubled chances of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires will make life in the UK look very different, very quickly; impacting how safe we are in our homes, what food we eat, how we get around – and UK households, businesses and emergency services are already struggling with worsening weather shocks.”
