UK house sales experienced their first “significant” decline in January since last summer, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has announced. A total of 94,680 home sales were recorded across the UK. This figure represents a 5% drop from December 2025’s 99,710 transactions. It was also “marginally” lower – less than 1% – than the 95,430 sales in January last year.
The revenue body’s report stated: “Figures for seasonally adjusted residential transactions in January 2026 are 5% lower, falling from 99,710 in December 2025 to 94,680 in January 2026. This marks the first significant decrease in transactions, following a period of stability since summer 2025.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said: “January’s data shows the first notable dip in activity since the summer, suggesting a slight cooling in momentum.
“Buyers remain cautious following a period of instability towards the end of (the fourth quarter of) last year, which has tempered confidence across the market.
“Despite this, some completions have rolled over from (the second half of) 2025 and we should see these expressed in the data in the coming months.
“Momentum is building beneath the surface, particularly in northern markets. Our Alderley Edge branch, for example, saw exchanges double in January, showing that committed buyers are returning.
“Demand remains selective and value-driven. Homes priced accurately are attracting competitive interest and progressing to exchange, while over-ambitious pricing is likely to slow the sale process.
“The wider economic picture is becoming more supportive. Falling inflation and the prospect of a Bank of England base rate cut next month should ease borrowing costs and improve access to finance.”
Ian Futcher, a financial planner at wealth manager Quilter, said: “Lenders have already been trimming fixed‑rate deals in anticipation of Bank of England cuts later this year, and the market is increasingly priced for a gradual easing cycle.
“If inflation continues to cool, there is a realistic prospect that average mortgage rates could drift lower through the spring and summer. That would gradually improve affordability and could release some of the pent-up demand that has been sitting on the sidelines since early 2024.
“For now, though, households remain cautious. Buyers are waiting for clearer evidence that further rate cuts are approaching and that any downward momentum in mortgage pricing will be sustained rather than tactical.
“The resilience in December’s numbers suggests transactions are being driven by need rather than opportunism, but an improving rate outlook would provide exactly the confidence boost required to lift activity out of its holding pattern.”
Nicky Stevenson, managing director at Fine & Country, said: “January is traditionally a quieter period for the market, as many buyers and sellers take a breath after Christmas before turning their attention back to moving plans.
“Households reassess budgets and work routines in January, so a 5% monthly fall therefore points more to seasonal patterns than any loss of confidence in the market.
“The fact that transactions are only marginally lower than they were a year ago is actually an encouraging sign. It suggests the market has remained broadly steady, with demand holding up. This time last year, there was a frenzy of activity in the market given the changes to stamp duty that took place in April 2025.”
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money, said: “Many homeowners are still sitting on historically low fixed-rate mortgages, making the financial case for relocating less compelling.”
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “Activity should recover in coming months as plans put on hold are reactivated and mortgage rates head lower.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at London-based estate agency Antony Roberts, said: “While volumes have been subdued compared to more buoyant years, we’re seeing activity pick up as committed buyers re-enter the market.
“There is clear pent-up demand from those who paused decisions last year, and many are now keen to move before conditions shift again.”
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “The increase in sellers bringing their homes to market this spring will keep prices in check to an extent, which will further assist first-time buyers and boost transactions.”
Iain McKenzie, chief executive of the Guild of Property Professionals, said: “While transaction volumes may have softened at the start of the year, the outlook for 2026 remains positive.”
