UK gas supply ‘will meet demand over the summer’ despite Middle East crisis – UK Times

Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supplies to meet the demands of households and businesses this summer despite a significant surge in prices driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The country’s gas system operator, National Gas, confirmed that Great Britain’s gas stocks are projected to be sufficient, even allowing for some exports to mainland Europe.

The announcement comes as National Gas unveiled its outlook for summer 2026 against a volatile backdrop for global energy markets.

Oil and gas prices have climbed sharply since late February following clashes between US-Israeli and Iranian forces.

UK natural gas futures, for instance, rose to approximately 120.7 pence per therm on Monday, a notable increase from around 78 pence per therm before the conflict escalated.

The instability has seen several liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East targeted by missiles.

Furthermore, exports from the region have faced severe disruption due to issues in the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor.

National Gas emphasised that Britain’s gas requirements will primarily be fulfilled by supplies extracted from the UK Continental Shelf and imports from Norway.

Around 86% of total gas supply (25.3 bcm) is expected to come from these sources.

National Gas said it expects this volume will be enough to exceed forecast demand from Great Britain and gas exported to Ireland.

Nevertheless, it added that around 5% of total supply will also come from flexible gas storage and around 9% of supply will come from LNG imports.

Forecasts were prepared ahead of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East but National Gas said it has reviewed its analysis since and concluded that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecasts.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer.

“The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.”

Demand for gas is forecast to be similar to summer 2025, according to the projections.

National Gas expects a roughly 6% reduction in gas demand used for electricity generation but said this will be largely offset by an expected 2% rise in non-daily metered demand from residential and commercial consumers.

Ian Radley, chief commercial officer at National Gas, said: “Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months.

“As renewable output fluctuates, gas‑fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly, and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably.

“It is important that ongoing, co-ordinated action between Government, industry and regulators continues to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports.”