Donald Trump threatened that “all hell would break loose” if all Israeli hostages were not freed this Saturday after Hamas announced they would delay the next staged release.
The US President intervened after Hamas militants threw the ceasefire in doubt, accusing Israel of systematically violating the terms of the ceasefire.
Israel’s defence minister hit back, calling that a “complete violation” of the deal and ordered the Israeli military “to prepare at the highest level of alert” for any possible scenarios.
What was already an incredibly fragile and complex agreement appears, once again, to be on the brink of collapse at a critical moment as talks for the next stage of the multi-phased truce were supposed to be moving forward.
Its demise would crush the hopes of Palestinian civilians, who have survived 15 months of ferocious bombardment and want to rebuild their homes and lives.
It would shatter the hopes of the families of the hostages in Israel, who are desperate to see their loved ones and have grown increasingly horrified by the conditions of those being released.
And even if these issues are resolved, the brinkmanship exposes again how tentative a building block this deal is for long-term, sustainable peace.
Just hours before the counter-accusations of violations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said an Israeli delegation had returned from talks in Qatar for the next stage, with no news on how they have – or indeed if they have – progressed. In plea to the world, a group representing families of those taken captive by Hamas called for international intervention to help, fearing this is the last chance to get their relatives out.
“We have urgently requested assistance from the mediating countries to help restore and implement the existing deal effectively,” the forum said, adding “time is of the essence, and all hostages must be urgently rescued from this horrific situation”.
In Gaza, families that had only just been able to return to their devastated homes were worried that this could mean fleeing bombing again, with more death and destruction on the horizon.
It took the US, Egypt, and Qatar over a year to broker the deeply complex deal, after months of false summits and dramatic reversals: Each time, Palestinian and Israeli civilians paid the price.
A truce finally came into effect last month. Under an initial six-week phase, at least 33 hostages were to be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees, a surge in aid, and the ability for Palestinians to return to the destroyed north.
During this time negotiations would continue for the second and third phases of the deal, which negotiators had hoped would see all of the remaining hostages – dead and alive – released, hundreds more prisoners freed, and crucially, a long-term peace.
Since the start of the deal, Israel and Hamas have carried out five swaps, freeing 21 hostages and over 730 prisoners. The next exchange was scheduled for Saturday, when three more Israelis would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinians.
But Hamas has repeatedly accused Israel of dragging its feet on allowing aid into Gaza, one of the conditions of the first phase of the agreement – a charge Israel has rejected as untrue. On Monday, the militant group also claimed that Israel had shelled various areas of the Strip and delayed the return of those displaced.
In turn, Israel has accused Hamas of messing with the agreed order in which the hostages were to be released and of orchestrating abusive public displays before large crowds when they have been handed over to the Red Cross.
There has been growing horror in Israel over the health of the returning hostages. The medical team of the group representing the majority of the hostages’ families said on Sunday morning that their findings show hostages were being held in “appalling conditions” including starvation, lack of sunlight, physical abuse, and medical neglect.
All that has fed the growing mutual distrust between both sides – a mistrust negotiators fear will not only scupper chances of the deal progressing to the next stages, but may see the entire agreement collapse before even the first phase is completed.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump has made some extraordinary statements, which have further derailed hopes of a post-war peaceful future. He has suggested Palestinians should be entirely moved out of Gaza, leaving the coastal enclave to be developed as a waterfront real estate project under US control. It is an action human rights groups said could amount to a war crime and a crime against humanity.
Speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday, he repeated his commitment to “buying and owning Gaza”.
Unless there is urgent, sensible and sensitive international intervention to enforce a real investment in this agreement and to continue immediate talks on the next phases – there will only be bloodshed and horror on the horizon.
