Donald Trump has not turned against Vladimir Putin. Rather, he has just announced a big day of future sales for the US arms industry with a buying bonanza for Ukraine by Nato.
With the secretary general of Nato sitting next to him in the Oval Office, the US president warned that Russia would face “100 per cent” tariffs if it did not agree to a ceasefire with Kyiv inside 50 days.
He went on to criticise Putin several times for his warm approach and manner on the telephone which he then followed up by renewed missile attacks on Ukraine.
“I wouldn’t call him an assassin – but I would call him a very tough guy,’ he said of the Russian president.
Howver, unveiling what he had teased in the days before as a “major statement” on Putin, Trump’s agreement to what both he and Rutter called a “very big” deal to sell weapons to Nato which could then be sent on to Ukraine, had no details.
‘We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons and they’re [Nato] going to be paying for them,” the president said. “The United States will not be having any payment made. We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it and they’re going to be paying for it.”
It is not the first deal Trump has struck in the war, with an agreement made directly with Ukraine earlier this year to trade mineral profits for arms sales, although none have been ordered through this mechanism.
For Volodymyr Zelensky, today’s news was signifcant as he has been trying since February to find ways to buy US weapons either directly, or through allies like the UK and others in Nato.
Nato is generally not restricted in its arms purchases from fellow members, but Washington has imposed some conditions on whether they can be sold or given to other countries.
Now Trump has declared that the delivery of Patriot air defence missiles, which are badly needed by Ukraine to counter the record levels of Russian attacks in the last month, can start soon.
In addition, there may be packages of weapons that could include long range rockets and missiles for deep strikes inside Russia – which could have tactical and even a strategic impact.
Ukraine has shown lately that with stealth and guile it has been able to use intelligence agents and drones to devastating effect over thousands of miles of Russian territory. But more long range cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow currently being supplied by the UK and France would be welcome.
Yet it should be aware that there’s no guarantee that if Putin signals he’s happy to enter ceasefire talks that Trump will not turn off the arms supply spigot for Kyiv. He already did so earlier this year – and for a while also blinded Ukraine’s intelligence feeds from US assets.
For his part, Rutte was keen to make sure that Trump got all the credit for a drift of policy away from backing every position adopted by Putin towards some support for Nato.
“The decision is that you want Ukraine… to be able to defend itself against Russia,” the head of Nato said. “But you want Europeans to pay for it, which is totally logical. And this is building on the tremendous success of the Nato summit.”
Trump said he hoped that the arms deal with Nato would have an impact on both sides and acknowledged that Ukraine might be emboldened by fresh supplies from the US.
But the key phrase in Monday’s meandering Oval Office performance was that “we have certain parameters that both sides know, and we already know what should be done”.
By this Trump means – and has repeatedly said – that Ukraine must accept it has lost the areas currently occupied by the Kremlin’s forces (about 20 per cent of its land mass and including Crimea); that the US will not guarantee Ukraine’s future security and that Kyiv should forever give up on joining Nato.
Taking these positions at the outset of his second presidency blindsided Kyiv and US allies across the world.
So while Trump’s agreement to sell guns and ammunition to Kyiv is a small shift based on personal irritation, it’s not a strategic move.
Ukraine and her allies will put those weapons to urgent use before he veers back again to Putin – which they must assume he will.
