The finishing line of the Tour de France is in sight and after three gruelling weeks – more so than normal – Tadej Pogacar is now just a few hours away from claiming his fourth Tour trophy as his Hall of Fame-level career continues.
He and Jonas Vingegaard will finish one and two on the podium for the fifth straight Tour, having split the last six between them, while Pogacar will also take home the King of the Mountains jersey and four stage wins.
And that number could rise to five on a tricky, punchy final day, a far cry from the usual procession into Paris and frenzied sprint finish – although that could still happen on the revamped stage 21.
Florian Lipowitz, the German former biathlete riding his debut Tour, has sewn up the best young rider’s white jersey and third spot on the podium, taking the place Remco Evenepoel occupied in both classifications last year.
And Britain has a new general classification contender for the future in the form of unassuming 22-year-old climber Oscar Onley, who proved one of very few riders who could stick with Pogacar and Vingegaard on the toughest slopes of this monumentally difficult Tour, and will finish fourth in Paris on just his second appearance at the race.
Meanwhile sprinter Jonathan Milan is set to take home the green points jersey after a battle with Pogacar himself for ownership of that classification – and could add glory on the Champs-Elysees to his two stage wins too.
The enormous levels of fatigue in the peloton have been evident for the last few days after five HC finishes, tough outings in the Pyrenees and the Alps, and a first week of racing that essentially felt like a whole week of one-day Classics. Even Pogacar has cut a downbeat figure, saying he “can’t wait for the Tour to be over”.
Kaden Groves won the most recent Classic, on stage 20, a hilly, punchy day out in the Jura hills marred by crashes and torrential downpour, with the Australian completing the set of Grand Tour victories with his maiden Tour de France win in Pontarlier.
He went solo 16km from the line after he, Frank van den Broek, and Briton Jake Stewart avoided a crash that either took out or held up much of the day’s breakaway, and profited from his two companions’ inability to work together, letting him storm away to the line.
“Today we weren’t sure whether to go for the stage or wait for tomorrow but when the rain falls I have a super feeling normally in the cold weather,” an emotional Groves said.
“It’s my first ever solo win and it’s a Tour stage so it’s pretty incredible.
“There’s so much pressure at the Tour. Having won in the Giro and won in the Vuelta all I ever get asked is if am I good enough to win in the Tour and now I’ve shown them.”
Groves could well take two wins in succession, as one of the punchier riders most likely to survive the redesigned stage 21.
Rather than a pan-flat stage ending in an inevitable bunch sprint, this year’s route is very different: two categorised climbs will add to the fatigue in the legs after the rollout from Mantes-la-Ville before the race enters Paris: the Cote de Bazemont (1.7km at 7%) and the Cote du Pave des Gardes (700m at 9.7%).
Then the usual circuits crossing the finish line on the Champs-Elysees are interspersed with more category-four climbs, up the short but steep Cote de la Butte Montmartre (1.1km at an average of 5.9%).
The decision has been made to add the climb after its popularity in the Olympic Games road race route last summer, but the three climbs in quick succession may put paid to any sprinters’ chances, and the battle for positioning on the narrow, cobbled roads could catch out the general classification hopefuls too, setting up an even more nerve-wracking and frantic finale than normal.
Route map and profile
Start time
The final stage of the Tour de France has a later start time than usual: 4.10pm local time (3.10pm BST), with an expected finish time of around 7.25pm local time (6.25pm BST).
Prediction
Normally a sprint finish would be nailed-on for stage 21 of the Tour de France, but this edition of the race has a huge question mark over it. The final climb of Montmartre comes just 6km from the finish and the accumulated fatigue of three difficult weeks of racing, plus three sharp climbs in quick succession, may be enough to kill off the sprinters.
But after the final ascent there’s a flat run-in to the traditional finish line on the Champs-Elysees, so it’s entirely possible the race may come back together for a bunch sprint. If a reduced group makes it over the final climb, the punchier fast men like Kaden Groves will have an advantage; Wout van Aert hasn’t looked near his best this Tour, but should be let off the Visma-Lease a Bike leash on the final stage and could still pick up a result (probably second place, if his season so far is anything to go by).
But if all the sprinters’ teams work together and come over the Montmartre together, Tim Merlier has had the beating of everyone on the stages he’s been able to contest.
But if the GC teams win the battle for positioning on the narrow cobbled climb of Montmartre, could Tadej Pogacar top off his magnificent Tour with one more stage win, on the race’s most iconic finish line of all? I wouldn’t rule him out…
