The battle for the general classification at the Tour de France is all but over, after Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard remained locked together – as they have throughout this final week – on stage 19.
Vingegaard, wearing Pogacar’s king of the mountains jersey for him, at least got one over his rival by winning a small sprint for second place atop La Plagne, the final hors-categorie climb of this year’s race and the last of five gruelling summit finishes at this year’s Tour.
But the Dane evidently did not have the legs to attack and distance his rival on the 19km climb, with the pair matching each other’s moves but failing to reel in Thymen Arensman.
The Dutchman – who had already sealed one victory on a HC climb, at Superbagneres on stage 14 – only had a handful of seconds over the GC duo going into the final kilometre but held them off with a herculean effort, finishing two seconds in front of both Vingegaard and Pogacar.
Arensman covered his face in disbelief as his debut Tour went from brilliant to even better, rescuing a difficult race for the Ineos Grenadiers, who otherwise failed to make an impact on the Tour and have had to fend off unwanted attention over historic allegations of wrongdoing against a member of staff.
“I’m absolutely destroyed. I can’t believe it,” the 24-year-old said at the finish. “Already to win one stage in the tour – unbelievable. From the GC group against the strongest riders in the world… feels like I’m dreaming.
“I don’t take no for an answer. It’s Tadej [Pogacar] and Jonas [Vingegaard] – everyone knows they are the strongest in the world, almost aliens. As a human, I still want to beat them. I tried to not look behind and go as fast as I could and it was enough. It’s just crazy.”
Now the Pyrenees and the Alps are over, and there are just two more stages to get through before the podium ceremony and champagne-popping in Paris.
Stage 20 screams ‘breakaway’: a hilly, punchy route through the Jura mountain range, beginning in Nantua, in the foothills of the Alps, and taking in four classified climbs on the 184km road to Pontarlier.
In total there’s 2,850m of climbing but none difficult enough to trouble the general classification contenders, who will likely sit tight in the peloton and be wrapped in cotton wool by their teammates as they’re shepherded towards Paris.
That means there will be 14 winless teams from this year’s race fighting to get in the day’s breakaway, setting up a no doubt chaotic first few kilometres of racing as a group establishes itself.
An unclassified rise out of Nantua leads swiftly onto the day’s first climb, the category-three Col de la Croix de la Serra, the longest of the day at 12.1km but a relatively forgiving 4.1%. That leads into the category-four Cote de Valfin (5.7km at 4.2%), with the intermediate sprint at Chaux du Dombief coming 72km into proceedings – an important landmark for Jonathan Milan, who will look to shore up his lead in the points classification.
The lumps and bumps continues, through the day’s punchiest, sharpest climb, the Cote de Thesy (3.6km at an average of 8.9%), with the final marked climb coming 20km from the finish at the Cote de Longeville (2.5km at 5.5%).
The road flattens out in the final seven kilometres or so, meaning that if enough sprinters have survived, we could be in for a reduced sprint of sorts.
With an unknown quantity on the horizon in Paris – the addition of several climbs of Montmartre potentially enough to bid adieu to the sprinters – their teams may have a fast finish in mind in Pontarlier, setting up what could be a frenzied final hour of racing.
Route map and profile
Start time
The penultimate stage of the Tour de France starts at 12.05pm local time (11.05am BST) with an earlier expected finish time of around 4.10pm local time (3.10pm BST).
Prediction
This stage is one for both the puncheurs and rouleurs of the peloton, with the flatter finish favouring a powerhouse rider who can get over the climbs. Jonas Abrahamsen loves a breakaway and already has one victory to his name, on a similarly lumpy day out in Toulouse on stage 11. From a British perspective, Fred Wright has been a constant in breakaways but hasn’t been able to hold on at the pointy end – but may fancy one last try tomorrow.
Kasper Asgreen is another breakaway artiste who excels on this sort of terrain, but with a second place alreaady to his name on stage 15, my bet is Victor Campenaerts. He’s been Visma-Lease a Bike’s strongest domestique in the entire race, consistently outperforming out-and-out climbers in the Pyrenees and Alps, and my feeling is Visma will thank him by letting him go for a shot at glory of his own on the road to Pontarlier.
