The Conservatives could be hit harder than Labour by the government’s decision to abandon plans to postpone elections in 30 areas, Britain’s leading polling expert has said.
Writing in The Independent, the top pollster explained that while Labour were always likely to face embarrassment in the May polls, the Tories are now fighting significant challenges from Reform UK in key counties that had been told they could delay elections.
Sir John Curtice said despite more Labour-controlled councils having been due to postpone their elections, the Conservatives “have a good reason to regret the reversal” of the delays, with four large Tory-majority county councils – Norfolk, Suffolk, East and West Sussex– now having to organise ballots.
“Although it was mostly relatively small Labour councils where only a third of the seats are up for grabs that opted for postponement, so also did three county councils under Tory control and a fourth where the Conservatives are the largest party,” he wrote.
“These are four big councils whose postponement accounts for over two in five of all the seats where the election had been postponed.
“As a result, the total number of Conservative councillors who now find themselves not having to defend their seat was slightly greater than the total number of Labour councillors.”
As well as the four county councils with Tory majorities, Conservative-controlled Harlow district council will also now have to organise local elections for May following the government’s u-turns.
Sir John warns these councils are in areas where Kemi Badenoch’s party are facing a particular threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
“Norfolk and Suffolk, East and West Sussex… these are just the kind of shire Tory councils where Reform made a breakthrough in last year’s local elections,” he writes.
“Kemi Badenoch will be concerned Nigel Farage could now register a repeat performance.”
Sir Keir Starmer was forced to reverse plans to postpone elections across 30 councils this May after being warned it would be illegal, in what marked yet another humiliating U-turn for the government.
The government previously said the delays were requested by local councils due to a lack of resources amid ongoing plans to scrap two-tier authorities and merge them into single unitary councils by 2028.
Last month, local government secretary Steve Reed confirmed 29 of the 136 council elections due to be held this year will now be delayed until 2027. One further council was then later granted permission to postpone elections.
The Electoral Commission previously criticised the delays, saying it risked “damaging public confidence”. The decision has also prompted claims from opposition parties that the postponements are politically motivated.
The government also faced criticism from local authority leaders, with one accusing Sir Keir’s administration of “wasting everyone’s time”.
Conservative run Norfolk County Council (NCC), which last held elections in May 2021, is one of the 30 local authorities that were expecting to postpone their elections this year.
The leader of NCC, councillor Kay Mason Billig said: “I note the government’s change of mind on yet another decision it couldn’t stick to – wasting everyone’s time.”
Meanwhile, the leader of Suffolk County Council, Matthew Hicks, said local authorities are “experiencing whiplash” from government decisions which make it “almost impossible” to plan effectively for residents.
And a spokesperson for East Sussex County Council said the authority’s workload will “intensify” with the “added demand” of organising a vote.
