In the heart of the Eternal City, Gregor Townsend arrives in Rome seeking to re-establish his credentials as Scotland’s commander-in-chief.
The Stadio Olimpico will be packed to the rafters. At its raucous and rumbustious best, it is a battleground which Townsend and his legion of Scottish warriors must conquer at the start of another Six Nations.
Should they suffer defeat, it would only strengthen the feeling that Townsend’s Scotland empire is crumbling and in a state of ruin.
That’s the knife edge on which this championship begins for the head coach. Victory would inject some positive momentum heading into next week’s Calcutta Cup clash with a rejuvenated England at Murrayfield.
A loss would leave Scotland and Townsend staring into the abyss. One from which they may struggle to extricate themselves.
The national team’s form has, by and large, been poor over the past two years. They have won only two games in each of the past two Six Nations campaigns, finishing in fourth place on both occasions.
Townsend badly needs victory or Six Nations could be over before it has really begun
The coach has faced uncomfortable questions about his future in build up to tournament
Under Townsend’s stewardship, which now stretches to eight-and-a-half years, they look like a team in decline. The noise around his continued links with Newcastle Red Bulls wwill only grow louder if they lose to Italy.
Scotland lost on their last visit to Rome two years ago. They blew a 12-point lead in a shambolic final half-hour, with Italy scoring 21 unanswered points at one stage on their way to a 31-29 win.
That game blew apart any notion of Scotland making progress under Townsend on the back of a poor World Cup only a few months earlier.
In the two years since then, that feeling has been hard to shake. It has largely been stagnation and regression. Last autumn, the team capitulated and blew a 21-point lead against Argentina.
They implode far too often. Certainly much too frequently to be brushed aside as anything other than a damning reflection of the structures put in place for them by Townsend.
Perhaps unlike any other team in world rugby, Scotland continue to have this insatiable capacity for self-sabotage, a propensity to aim a gun at their own feet and fire relentlessly.
Townsend has had to face fresh questions this week over reports he will take charge of Newcastle Red Bulls when his Scotland contract expires after next year’s World Cup.
What he doesn’t seem to realise, or what he is perhaps unwilling to admit, is that the whole thing is entirely self-inflicted.
Scotland suffered a demoralising defeat last time they made Six Nations trip to Rome in 2024
The Scots blew a 12-point lead as Italy went on to celebrate a 31-29 win at the Olimpico
Townsend will be hoping for a better result than his last trip to Stadio Olimpico two years ago
He has already crossed the rubicon with regards to Newcastle. It’s past the point of no return. Everyone knows that’s where he will end up. He opened the door to it all. The genie is out of the bottle and isn’t going back in.
It has been another layer of noise and distraction that Scotland just don’t need. Against a dangerous Italy side who will be backed by 70,000 fans inside the Olimpico, this is a fixture laced with danger for Townsend.
It is a game he dare not lose. This is not the same fixture as it was 15 or 20 years ago. Italy are a highly capable and highly skilled team, with excellent players across the field.
Since 2016, their list of victories over tier-one nations has grown ever more impressive and extensive; South Africa, Wales (three times), Australia (twice), and Scotland.
They have also drawn with France during that period, and would have won had it not been for Paolo Garbisi missing a penalty when the ball fell off the tee as he struck it.
Over the past few years, the Azzurri have grown and matured. They now have talent and experience to match the physicality that has long been an asset since they entered the Six Nations in 2000.
Ange Capuozzo, the little pocket rocket who so often dazzles in their backline, misses out through injury after he broke a finger while on club duty with Toulouse a few weeks ago.
But only a fool would fail to recognise the talent which Italy still have at their disposal elsewhere. Captain Michele Lamaro would enhance any back row in the championship.
Likewise, the centre pairing of Juan Ignacio Brex and Tomasso Menoncello are good enough to grace any midfield. Garbisi and Monty Ioane bring attacking threat at fly-half and wing.
This will be Townsend’s ninth crack at a Six Nations as Scotland head coach. There have been some terrific highs, most notably an unprecedented period of dominance over England.
Townsend faces a tough balancing act as he chases victory while answering questions about his future
The head coach’s Scottish rugby empire will be at risking of crumbling if team are defeated in Rome
But those moments have become more fleeting over these past couple of years. Results and performances have drifted. A growing number of supporters have become disillusioned.
Finn Russell is now 33 years old. How much longer will Scotland have this genuine global superstar to call upon at fly-half?
Huw Jones is 32. He’s another player who has been electric at times for Scotland in the Six Nations. How many more chances will we get with these guys in the team?
There can be no excuses. Scotland’s squad is in good health overall, unlike last year when captain Sione Tuipulotu missed the championship through injury.
Their schedule isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either; Italy in Rome, England at Murrayfield, Wales in Cardiff, France at Murrayfield, Ireland in Dublin.
It’s not beyond them to still be firmly in contention heading into those final two games against the French and the Irish.
France laid down a marker with a dominant win over a wounded Ireland on Thursday night. Les Bleus and England are likely to contest a winner-takes-all showdown in Paris on the final weekend.
But Scotland are good enough to at least have a say in all of that. Townsend has picked players in form and, wisely, leaned on a Glasgow Warriors core. All the noise will stop this afternoon when the first whistle sounds.
Stand and deliver, or stumble and fail? It’s now or never for Townsend. The endless cycle of talking about ‘progress’ and ‘learning’ has to stop.
He has a squad of players in the prime of their careers. Another championship which yields only two wins and mid-table mediocrity should not be tolerated or accepted.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that the head coach should be relieved of his duties if Scotland once again finish with only a couple of wins.
Of course, that would rely on his bosses at the SRU actually showing some backbone and holding him to account. Good luck with that.
He cannot afford another false dawn in Rome. If Scotland fall to defeat, the championship could be over before it even really begins.
