Maybe Volodymyr Zelensky had some “cards” after all. Contrary to the worst fears aroused after his infamous encounter in the Oval Office in February, the president of Ukraine appears to have secured a remarkably fair and generous minerals deal from the United States.
The “Art of the Deal” may have been Donald Trump’s abiding contribution to literature, but it is Mr Zelensky, it now seems, who used his personal diplomacy with the US president during the funeral for Pope Francis to excellent effect. Free of the barracking and malign influence of vice-president JD Vance – and away from the Russian-inspired propaganda relayed by some of his advisers – Mr Trump was able to listen to his Ukrainian counterpart’s case directly.
The deal, as now signed and published, is far superior to earlier versions – not just for Ukraine, but also for the United States. The initial versions were grotesquely exploitative, reducing Ukraine to a vassal state – and so impoverishing and weakening the country that it rendered the agreement unsustainable.
Now, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, the man responsible for the negotiations, has said the text “clearly signals the Trump administration’s commitment to a free, sovereign, prosperous Ukraine”. In terms of protecting Ukrainian security, those words are probably worth as much as the critical minerals lurking in the subsoil of Ukraine’s remaining eastern regions.
It is true that the deal is far from a US security guarantee, which is unlikely to appear even in the final settlement, but as Mr Trump declares: “We’ve got an American presence on the site, it helps keep bad actors out of the country or at least out of the area.” “Bad actors” has not hitherto been Mr Trump’s preferred way of referring to Vladimir Putin.
For her part, Mr Bessent’s opposite number, Yulia Svyrydenko, is pleased with the agreement and noted that the deal refers to future projects – revenues from existing projects or those already accounted for in the budget will not be included. That adds an incentive to the Americans to make sure that the Russian occupation of the territories rich in these resources under any wider peace accord is minimised.
Gone is the idea that Ukraine owes any inflated financial debt to the US for military assistance freely donated by the previous administration and approved by Congress; or that the Americans would own the mineral resources of another sovereign nation.
The Americans will bring capital and expertise to Ukraine’s natural resources sector – and both sides will reap the financial benefits via a shared wealth fund, one that can also help pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Optimistically, this initiative could lead to closer industrial and technological links with the US – as well as Ukraine potentially joining the European Union, with the transformative effect that implies. A prosperous, powerful Ukraine much more capable of looking after its own defence is the vision.
For now, though, attention turns to the wider peace settlement. In recent weeks, there are hopeful signs that President Putin has made it a little too obvious that he is playing the US along – and that he is as content to continue his war as to sign the deal the Americans have out to him as the basis for negotiation.
Mr Trump has expressed increasing exasperation with the Kremlin, although never quite as viciously as he has with Mr Zelensky. Still, the emphasis once again is on securing the ceasefire the US leader has been seeking for many months as the first move in the peace process – and not in appeasing Russian attempts to gain concessions and dictate preconditions for talks. If Mr Trump’s patience is running out with Putin – and he is beginning to understand that he is being manipulated – then that is good news for Ukraine and for European security, too.
Since the illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there have been few moments of hope, yet the establishment of the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund is one. It is significant in itself because of its symbolism and because it marks a shift in how Washington perceives Russian intentions.
A long-term partnership with Putin probably remains Mr Trump’s goal, despite the contradictions and dangers involved – but there seems to be some increasing realism about whether the Russians can be trusted. Mr Zelensky, who keeps his word and speaks honestly, is proving to be the more cooperative and reliable man to do business with.
