Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership faces a critical test next May, with a prominent polling expert predicting significant Labour losses across the UK.
Lord Robert Hayward has warned of heavy defeats in English council elections, a loss in the Welsh Senedd, and a “battering” in the Scottish Parliament on 7 May 2026.
Such bleak results could reignite questions over Sir Keir’s position at the helm of the party following anonymous briefings from his allies against potential rivals that made headlines in November.
Although some councils are expected to defer polls to 2027 for local government reorganisation, elections are confirmed for London and metropolitan areas including Merseyside, Greater Manchester, and Yorkshire.
While these areas have recently been Labour-dominated, Lord Hayward said the party was on course for “very, very large” losses to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and, in east London, pro-Gaza Independent candidates.
Even the Conservatives could pick up seats in London, he said, although the Tories’ overall result will depend heavily on whether elections go ahead in counties where they won heavily in 2021 but now face major losses.
Gains in London councils such as Westminster or Barnet could help shore up Kemi Badenoch’s position as Conservative leader, which has come to seem more secure in recent months as her personal polling improves.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, said: “A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.
“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”
He added that while Labour and possibly the Conservatives were on course to lose seats in May, there would be no clear victor, but a “cacophony of winners”.
Reform, starting from a low base, is likely to make the most gains, Lord Hayward said, but a range of other parties are expected to claim some sort of victory on the night, with a clear picture perhaps only emerging in the days following the election.
Despite what could be significant changes in England, Lord Hayward suggested it was the results in Scotland and Wales that could have the most long-term significance for the UK.
Last year, Labour had been expecting to supplant the SNP and return to power at Holyrood in 2026.
But that prospect now seems unlikely, with Lord Hayward suggesting the party was on course for “one hell of a battering” while the SNP, the Greens and Reform could do well.
In Wales, the picture is more complicated given the change in the electoral system, the increase in the size of the Senedd and the lowering of the voting age to 16.
Especially in light of the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are in line to do well at Labour’s expense.
Success for the SNP and Plaid Cymru could have constitutional implications beyond the impact of the elections on Labour’s leadership.
The SNP is likely to reopen calls for another independence referendum if it wins a majority in Holyrood, while major gains for Plaid Cymru could see more vocal demands for greater devolution to Wales.
