The traditional gifts for Keir Starmer’s visit to see Donald Trump for the first time since the inauguration have yet to be announced, but it is a fair bet that the prime minister will hand the US president an Arsenal shirt with the number 47 (for 47th president) on it.
The shirt of the prime minister’s favourite football team has been his safe go-to gift for all his first meetings with previous world leaders and this is one trip above all where he will be wanting to play safe.
Insiders have told The Independent that Sir Keir will receive a “respectful” and even “warm” greeting from the new president – at least publicly – and we’re likely to see similar jovial treatment in the Oval Office in front of journalists as French president Emmanuel Macron did earlier this week.
The trouble is that Sir Keir does not appear to have Macron’s gallic charm. In fact, referring back to his obsession with football, people around Trump have suggested the British prime minister “is a bore”.
But Starmer certainly seems all too eager to please his host, and there is widespread speculation that there will be an announcement on Trump visiting the UK and addressing the Houses of Parliament as well as a possible Royal visit to the US – both of which should help the prime minister curry favour with his US counterpart.
The shock announcement on slashing international spending, something so dear and close to Labour’s political identity, to help fund a boost in defence spending underlines how nervous Starmer and his government are about this visit.
Top of that list for Trump will be the issue of a “two tier” legal system and “attacks on free speech”. Elon Musk, who is close to the president, has been raising this repeatedly in the most inflammatory ways since the summer riots.
Police arresting people and the courts imprisoning people for tweets in the UK is becoming a much bigger issue in the US than people appreciate.
“Starmer will find a lot of challenge and pushback on what is clearly a two tiered legal system,” a Trump team insider told The Independent.
It appears that may be the number one issue for the president and it will feed into another challenge Starmer is facing, one of a trade deal or possible tariffs. Sir Keir will be working hard to prevent the latter but it has also been clear for some time that Trump thinks he can push the UK into a US friendly trade deal, or as one insider put it “have Britain over a barrel” in the negotiations.
But, of course, Starmer’s main aim will be to soften Trump’s stance on European defence and Ukraine.
Already we have seen the contrast between the private and public dealings with the Lord Mandelson affair.
Mandelson has now started his term as UK ambassador to the US and will be a key figure this week hosting a party on Thursday night but ahead of his appointment, Trump’s team were briefing hard that his credentials could be refused while Trump himself was being publicly generous and gracious about Starmer.
In the end it was clearly a way of getting leverage over the British although we are still not sure for what.
But the likelihood of a royal visit to the US and Trump getting the full honours including the elusive addressing the Houses of Parliament when he comes to the UK were involved.
The other issue, which Trump has been quiet on but remains a thorn in the relationship, will be Chagos.
This visit will decide in effect if the deal of handing over the Indian Ocean islands goes ahead. At the moment – given the way he has tried to reclaim the Panama Canal, control Greenland and Canada – many expect Trump to veto the deal.
It would be another humiliation for a British prime minister whose softly softly approach to this most rightwing of US presidents over Ukraine and other issues is already attracting criticism and concern.
But Trump’s love of the Royal family and the apparent desire for the King or Prince and Princess of Wales to have an official visit may yet prove to be Sir Keir’s trump card.
