Labour MPs have warned that Keir Starmer has brought forward the timetable for a leadership challenge by blocking Andy Burnham from standing at the crucial Gorton and Denton by-election.
The crunch poll, taking place on 26 February, is now being seen by some MPs as a referendum on the prime minister’s leadership, putting immense pressure on the government, which is now expected to lose the by-election.
It comes after the Labour Party unveiled a relatively unknown candidate, Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia, to fight the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Expectations of a challenge to the prime minister before the local elections on 7 May have risen after a 10-strong group from Labour’s ruling NEC, including Sir Keir, voted to deny Mr Burnham permission to run in the Greater Manchester by-election.
Critics have accused Sir Keir and his allies of preventing Mr Burnham’s candidacy for factional reasons, fearing a leadership challenge from the mayor as both Labour’s poll ratings and his personal approval ratings flounder.
There is now widespread speculation that supporters of health secretary Wes Streeting will launch a bid to replace Sir Keir while former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner is also believed to be preparing for a contest having declared this week: “I’m not dead yet”.
One veteran Labour MP said: “Basically colleagues were looking at something after the local elections on 7 May but by holding the by-election when it has been, the timetable has been brought forward. Why wait?”
It came as the Labour mayor of Liverpool launched an extraordinary attack on Downing Street, hitting out at “gutless people” within government responsible for a briefing war against Mr Burnham after he was blocked from standing.
Steve Rotheram rallied behind fellow mayor Mr Burnham with a post on social media in which he insisted that such briefings “help nobody but our opponents”.
In the aftermath of the decision to block Mr Burnham, there were briefings that he had been told in advance that he would be blocked from standing should he apply.
Both Sir Keir Starmer and Mr Burnham have denied this was the case and spoke to each other last Monday to clear the air.
In a post on X, Liverpool region mayor Mr Rotheram said: “Enough already. I’ve kept my counsel so far because there were assurances from the Prime Minister that anonymous briefings against Andy Burnham would stop.
“These gutless people hide behind the cloak of anonymity – just like the keyboard warriors they rail against.”
Already Labour has launched a campaign to try to prevent leftwing voters from tactically backing the Greens to avoid a so-called “Caerphilly scenario” – insisting voters must make a choice between Reform and Labour.
The Welsh Senedd seat of Caerphilly had been held continuously by Labour for more than a century until last year when the party came third with voters tactically supporting Plaid Cymru to keep Reform out.
One senior backbencher noted: “If we come third in this seat it will be unacceptable for colleagues. It will just be a precursor to the bloodbath in May.”
But the prospect of a Green victory is also now being seen as even worse than one by Nigel Farage’s Reform.
“At least if Reform win we can say it is us against Reform, but if the Greens win it will feed into the narrative that voting Green is not a wasted vote and they are a serious alternative around the country,” said one MP whose seat is threatened by Reform.
The MP added: “I am going to need to rely on tactical voting to save my seat as are other colleagues but if people think they can vote Green and get a Green MP then that is much less likely to happen.”
MPs are on strict orders to go and campaign because the number of activists willing to knock doors in Gorton and Denton has dramatically dropped since Mr Burnham was rejected as the candidate, parliamentarians have claimed.
One MP said: “I will go once to say I have done it but I am not filled with enthusiasm to help out in a contest we are going to lose.”
Some Labour ministers insist the decision to block Mr Burnham, which prompted a furious row within the party, would draw a line under the constant leadership speculation which has surrounded the mayor of Greater Manchester for months.
“It’s happened. We now have to go forward,” one minister told The Independent. But rather than end talk of leadership challenges, last weekend’s determined decision to remove Mr Burnham from the field has only turned attention to Sir Keir’s other rivals.
And many MPs believe the real beneficiary is Mr Streeting.
“Now that Andy is out of the picture, lots of people are looking at Wes instead,” one Labour MP said.
One MP pointed to the extraordinary row before Christmas when allies of Sir Keir briefed Mr Streeting was plotting to oust the prime minister. The row erupted just hours before the health secretary was booked to appear on morning television.
In the end, Mr Streeting prevailed after a virtuoso series of interviews in which at one point he memorably claimed his accusers had launched “just about the worst attack on a faithful I’ve seen since Joe Marler was kicked out and banished in the final” of The Traitors.
One Labour MP told The Independent: “What you saw was a politician in a tight spot, who came out fighting, made his case and ultimately won. And that is where the Labour party is now and what the Labour party has to do. Come out fighting, make the case and win. Ironically, No 10 allowed Wes to show a path to solving our problems.”
Meanwhile, Ms Rayner is due to speak at a reception hosted by Mainstream, a new Labour group co-launched by one Andy Burnham, which will take place in Westminster on the evening of Tuesday 24 February, barely 36 hours before the polls open in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
MPs have told The Independent that she would have the support of the 80 Labour MPs necessary to back a leadership bid.
But her route to the leadership is not as straightforward as it might have been, because she has been accused of “trying to play both sides” in the Burnham row after she did not sign a letter from Labour MPs calling for the decision to block Mr Burnham to be reversed.
One MP said: “If Angela had supported it we would have had the 80 needed to trigger a leadership vote which would have been quite a statement. But she has tried to have it both ways suggesting she supported Andy being selected but then not backing the letter.”
MPs on the left also complain that she has not used her time on the backbenches “to really create distance between herself and this government.”
