It’s only been two months. It just feels longer. That’s how it goes when you spent the dark nights yearning for better days.
For Hearts fans, January 14 was the fateful date when Lady Luck first turned her back on them in what was promising to be the season of their dreams.
Another routine league win, this one over St Mirren, came at a cost when Cammy Devlin hobbled off late in the game.
The best midfielder in the Premiership by a distance to that point, the damage done to the Australian’s ankle would have been a savage enough blow to Derek McInnes’ squad. Two months out was the bombshell prognosis.
Like the old Edinburgh buses, though, another cruel twist of fate lay just around the corner. Three days later, a home defeat on penalties to Falkirk in the Scottish Cup was compounded by the hamstring injury picked up by Lawrence Shankland. A similar timeframe for his return was predicted.
Cue the predictable platitudes about one man’s misfortune being an opportunity for another. True, perhaps, in other circumstances, but not here.
Premiership leaders Hearts have missed Lawrence Shankland, above left, during his lengthy injury lay-off
Shankland’s impact for Hearts to that stage suggested he was irreplaceable. Everything that’s transpired since has shown that assessment to be bang on the money.
Eleven of the forward’s 15 goals for the season had come in league matches. They included one in an early 3-2 win at Tannadice, a brace in a victory at Ibrox and another in a 3-1 home win over Celtic which really started to fuel the belief that something special was afoot.
By the time he was sidelined, he had converted 17.3 per cent of his chances, with the rest of the squad managing just 5.5 per cent. A deadly marksman and then some.
Even when he wasn’t scoring, his presence on the field elevated the collective effort. When he played, McInnes’ men took 50 points from 63. That’s knocking on an 80-per-cent return rate.
In the games where Shankland didn’t feature, they managed just 13 points from 30. That’s a drop off to 43 per cent.
Claudio Braga has strived manfully to fill the void. The Portuguese has scored 15 times this season, yet only three of those goals have come in the period since Shankland has been injured. It’s clear that both players complement each other superbly.
Braga’s contribution is still miles ahead of that of Pierre Landry Kabore – four goals in the league, but just two in 16 appearances – and Elton Kabangu, who has not yet managed to find the net in the Premiership.
But Braga can’t do it alone. Shankland’s imminent return will feel like a merciful relief. For the squad at large, the second coming of the Scotland man this season may do wonders for a flagging title challenge.
Hearts fans are fed up seeing injured pair Cammy Devlin and Lawrence Shankland in the stands and want them back on the pitch
It surely says much that Shankland has been absent for all bar one of the five league losses in this campaign. One player may not make a team but, in the case of the 30-year-old, they clearly make the world of difference.
You would have said the same about Devlin, too, as he took his game to a whole new level in those opening six months. As Hearts stormed to the summit, there seemed to be no stopping the more diminutive half of the Gorgie club’s dynamic duo.
What a timely boost their returns to full training will have been this week. The perfect pick-me-up for a thoroughly wretched performance at Kilmarnock last Saturday.
There will be no more pictures of the pair huddled together in the stand when Dundee come to town on Saturday.
For the manager, it’s a question of balancing the need to ease both men back into action with accruing the three points which are needed to keep this title tilt on course.
Still two points ahead of Celtic with eight games remaining, McInnes doesn’t yet have to go all-in and gamble on the physical condition of his star men. Yet that day feels like it’s coming.
To a degree, Devlin’s absence has been mitigated by the loan signing of Marc Leonard and the form of Tomas Magnusson.
The Icelander suffered a fractured cheekbone in a clash with Aaron Tshibola at Rugby Park and is expected to be sidelined for several weeks.
The Tynecastle side have missed Shankland’s goals during his two-month absence
After a month out himself, Oisin McEntee replaced him in the 1-0 loss, but later felt a reoccurrence of a shoulder complaint. Devlin might have to grit his teeth and get on with it come the weekend.
Part of McInnes’ thinking may be shaped by the forthcoming international break. Shankland isn’t involved in the Scotland squad so will have time to get his sharpness back.
While there will still be seven matches to go once hostilities resume, Hearts can ill-afford to endure another weekend where the Old Firm make up more ground and potentially overtake them.
They’ve been at the top of the tree since the end of September. To stand a chance of winning the title for the first time since 1960, from a psychological viewpoint, they’d probably need to stay there at the break.
Does McInnes throw Shankland in from the start against Dundee, hope to get the job done and look to take him off after an hour? Or does he hold him back, cross his fingers that Braga and others deliver, and look to give him a late run out? It’s a monumental call.
Hearts haven’t lost a league game at Tynecastle this season, and that sequence will be expected to continue.
But a Dundee side who are now unbeaten in five matches and fast improving under Steven Pressley will be formidable opponents. Come what may for Shankland, it’s unlikely to be a gentle reintroduction to front line action.
It’s no exaggeration to suggest that the narrative of this season – and, by extension, the history of the Scottish game – may be shaped by how he fares in the coming two months.
What has been a compelling story has also been a strange one. The curious case of the missing goal-scoring centre forward, you might call it.
Derek McInnes faces a big call over whether to throw talisman Shankland straight back into action following his return from injury
Hearts’ cause has unquestionably been aided by both halves of the Old Firm being devoid of the kind of firepower you would normally associate with them.
As the business end of the campaign approaches, Rangers’ top league scorer is Youssef Chermiti with nine goals. Only one of those has come against a bottom-six side.
Over the city at Celtic? It’s a midfielder in Benjamin Nygren who has netted 15 times in the Premiership. The top-scoring centre forward still on the books is Johnny Kenny (with four). And he’s currently playing in England’s League One with Bolton Wanderers.
While it’s not impossible for a team to win a title with such a dearth of goals coming from the expected sources, it would certainly be highly unusual.
Shankland still has time to show that those individuals who make the hardest part of the game look so easy tend to make all the difference in the final reckoning.
