Saturday’s racing tips: Best bets and odds from Newmarket and York – UK Times

HKJC Worldpool Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) (14.15, Newmarket)

I think there’s a very interesting runner here in MACHADADORP, who represents the Andrew Balding team. True Test heads the market on betting sites and will find this a significantly easier test than some she’s faced recently.

I respect her chance, while Song N Dance, who I sided with at Ascot last time out, comes here fresh after a couple of months off and although she is more exposed than the selection, she may still have some more improvement in her.

However, the patter comment appears to be more likely with regard to the selection, who is a Mehmas filly who ran green over 1m on her debut at Ascot but has come on nicely since.

Next up she went to Chester and picked up a fillies’ maiden (7f, good) with a bit in hand and she confirmed that theory when taking another good step forward at Wetherby last time (7f, good to firm), when she had to fight to defy a penalty but did so.

Given who she’s handled by, further improvement on her handicap debut appears more than likely. She’ll need some on what she’s achieved but I think her initial mark of 86 looks reasonably fair and she should be bang there at the business end.

Weatherbys Handicap (Class 2) (14.52, Newmarket)

Moonfall heads the market for this after his Britannia Stakes win at Royal Ascot (1m, good to firm) for which George Boughey’s gelding has gone up 7lb. That rise far from rules him out in this, as he continues to progress.

However, better handicapped on his first start in this sphere may be ALFARAZ, who just like in the previous race, is an Andrew Balding-trained runner who could make a splash on entering this phase of his career.

The Nathaniel colt had shown some promise during his first four starts, without winning any of them but he put that right when heading here last time a winning a C&D (good to firm) novice event, beating a couple of other promising types, including the odds-on favourite.

On that evidence, this initial mark of 88 suggests he could be well treated on his return to the track and at the prices, he looks very interesting and worth an each-way play.

Eklleem, another handicap newcomer, and Wechaad are others who could make their presence felt.

Betway Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (15.25, Newmarket)

A cracking contest in store for this year’s Bunbury Cup and there are plenty in with chances.

Royal Zabeel arrives in great nick after winning here last week but a 6lb penalty does make him look vulnerable and his price reflects that. Back In Black is one to note in the market, while don’t discount Colombier or Physique at longer prices on racing betting sites.

However, I’m zoning in on Royal Ascot form for this, as we have the Buckingham Palace Stakes second ELARAK and third Great Acclaim. Both ran cracking races when I went with the latter in that event, when all the first four came from high draws.

Elarak led inside the final furlong but Mezcala came to nab him, while Great Acclaim stuck on well. In context, Elarak probably ran a slightly better race at the weights. He’s also still improving and if he can repeat that effort here, he could take some stopping. He’s up just 3lb and I like his chance.

John Smith’s Cup (Class 2) (15.45, York)

Another really good renewal of this annual conundrum on the Knavesmire and I couldn’t resist having another go at solving it.

As ever, there are numerous chances and several that look plotted up. One that I think will run a huge race at double-figure odds is HAND OF GOD, who is a lightly-campaigned five-year-old trained by Harry Charlton.

He had a crack at this last year when he went off at just 7/1 on betting apps from stall nine but after being handy he backed out quickly and recorded his worst effort for some time.

I’m hoping that was just a one-off as it’s quite difficult not to handle this lovely flat, galloping track and it’s noted that he was put away after last year’s race and didn’t return to the racecourse until April.

He made a step back in the right direction at Newbury that day (1m, good), when beaten just over 3l and then bounced right back with a career-best effort to win a Class 3 event going away by 2l (1m2f, good).

A fair bit might depend on how he starts here because he’s drawn in stall one but if Lewis Edmunds can get him out, he’s got the shortest route to travel and that latest Newbury win suggests he may still be well treated after a 5lb rise has taken him to a mark of 101.

He’s only had 10 starts and I think there could be more to come from him, so I’m going to play to relatively small stakes in this big field and hope he can erase the memory of last year’s effort.

Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (16.35, Newmarket)

One of the feature sprints of the season has not disappointed in terms of its line-up, with a stellar field turning up, including last year’s close second Big Mojo, plus three winners and a second from some of the big sprints at Royal Ascot.

You’ll recall I sided with both Venetian Sun and Satano Reve in their respective races there but this time I am going to take both on with an each-way play on MISSION CENTRAL, who may have what it takes to follow-up his King Charles III Stakes (5f, good to firm) success.

We already know that Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old gets this trip as he’s a three-time winner over it. He proved he can handle quick ground at Royal Ascot, when I felt the way he ran would suit this contest.

He was prominent early but lost that position before doing his best work late on, which was perhaps to be expected. The return to further should, therefore, be a boon and I think he’s at the least good enough to make the frame, perhaps win it.

Venetian Sun won the Commonwealth Cup in fine style and she’s a major threat again, those a closer inspection of the figures suggest that the selection’s win at the same meeting was a few pounds better and yet she’s a shorter price. For that reason, I am taking her on but have huge respect for her in doing so.

Almeraq just had the measure of Satano Reve in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, much to my frustration that day and it would be no surprise if either of that pair proved good enough here, given the run of the race. It’s a fascinating contest and one to look forward to.

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