Thank you, Mr Chair.
There are many reasons why Russia should get serious about negotiations on a just and lasting peace in Ukraine first and foremost, its war is illegal, unprovoked, and wrong; civilians continue to pay the highest price; and, the scale of destruction inflicted by Russia is beyond anything our continent has seen in 80 years. These facts alone should compel Russia to change course. But the Kremlin must also now realise that Russia cannot win this war and it is time to stop.
On the battlefield, Russia is exhausting its manpower at a rate it cannot sustain. Casualty levels remain staggeringly high, while the pool of volunteers continues to shrink. Russia is increasingly relying on coercion and compulsion, including the recruitment of third-country nationals.
Russia is paying this high price for minimal territorial gains. Its rate of advance has slowed markedly in 2026, despite casualties remaining high. This is not the trajectory of a state on the path to victory.
This is not to gloat. There are wider negative impacts that are a consequence of a frustrating campaign on the front line. When Russia cannot achieve decisive results on the battlefield, it intensifies attacks on civilians. And last weekend, it launched 600 drones at 90 missiles at Ukraine, primarily targeted at Kyiv. This was one of the largest air attacks on the capital since the full-scale invasion, and the largest missile attack on Ukraine since 2024. So far in May these attacks have killed nearly 200 civilians and injured over 1,500 more, meaning that tragically, May is on track for the highest number of civilian casualties since April 2022. A state confident of victory does not need to terrorise civilians. This behaviour betrays weakness, not strength.
That weakness is increasingly visible inside Russia. The war economy is under growing strain. Growth fell to 1% last year. The economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026, and Russia has cut its growth forecast for this year to just 0.4%. Oil and gas revenues fell by 24% in 2025 and remain down in 2026 compared to the same period last year. Ukrainian strikes have reportedly driven Russian refining capacity to its lowest point since 2009.
And these pressures are being passed directly to the Russian public through higher taxes, reduced social spending and tighter controls. The public frustration that arises from this is suppressed rather than addressed, which runs counter to OSCE commitments on freedoms.
Mr Chair, Russia cannot outlast Ukraine’s partners. Ukraine continues to adapt and innovate. Those who support it remain united and resolute. Our combined economic strength and defence capacity far exceeds Russia’s. Russia’s victory is not inevitable. On current trends, it is increasingly implausible. All the more reason then, for Russia to recognise this reality, agree to a full, unconditional ceasefire and engage seriously on a just and lasting peace. We urge them to do so, and doing so would save many lives.
The United Kingdom will continue to stand with Ukraine, support its right to self-defence, and work with partners to ensure that aggression fails. Thank you.
