Scotland need a miracle to remain one of the World Cup’s top eight third-placed teams and stay in the competition.
Steve Clarke’s side are being hauled towards the abyss and Iran’s draw with Egypt in the early hours of Saturday morning was another hammer blow to their chances.
Opta now give the Scots just a 0.1 percent shot at staying in the World Cup.
With the team now down in 10th place among the third-place teams, the Tartan Army will need massive favours from elsewhere – now including large swings in goal difference – if their adventure is to go on.
Daily Mail Sport takes a closer look at what Scotland need to happen to keep their World Cup dreams alive, who England are likely to face and which sides have the best chances of winning it all.
Scotland boss Steve Clarke knows his side need a miracle to stay at the World Cup
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | For | Against | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2. Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3. Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 4. Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5. Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| 6. Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7. Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 8. Korea Rep | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9. Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 10. Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 11. Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 12. Congo DR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Who do Scotland need to cheer for?
Egypt’s failure to beat Iran in their 1-1 draw now means Scotland are in desperate need of Algeria and Croatia losing.
Not only that, Scotland need Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals to put them on -4 and below the Scots in the table.
Algeria would have to lose against Austria by two goals for Scotland to leapfrog them.
And finally, Uzbekistan would need to either win or draw against the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Scotland don’t just need one of those outcomes – they need all three, hence Opta giving them just a 0.1 percent chance of progressing. Scotland fans, get your Ghana, Austria and Uzbekistan shirts on now.
Who could Scotland face if they progress?
In the incredibly unlikely eventuality that Scotland advance as one of the eight best third placed teams, they would face either the winners of Group A, E and I.
Mexico have already been confirmed as Group A winners with their last-32 tie already confirmed as being in front of home fans at the Azteca Stadium on June 30.
It would throw up the prospect of Scotland potentially meeting England in the last 16, provided England win their group to lock themselves into that part of the draw.
Would Scotland fans rather get knocked out now or potentially be eliminated by the Three Lions? What a horrible hypothetical for the Tartan Army that is…
Scotland’s other possible last-32 opponents look daunting with Germany confirmed as Group E winners, while France topped Group I.
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Who England could face?
England are currently top of Group L and would be confirmed as winners if they beat Panama on Saturday night in their final match and maintain their goal difference advantage over Ghana.
This would mean Thomas Tuchel’s side would play their last-32 match in Atlanta against one of the best third placed teams from either groups E, H, I, J, K.
As it stands England are most likely to face Senegal, with just over a 50 percent chance of playing Sadio Mane and Co.
Senegal’s hammering of Iraq in their final group game gave them a total of three points with a +2 goal difference.
The next most likely option would be DR Congo, who would need to beat Uzbekistan in their final group game. The chances of England vs DR Congo are around 42 percent.
Senegal are currently England’s most likely opponents in the round of 32
And there’s a very small chance England could face Algeria but that stands at three percent.
Should England finish second in the group they would meet the runner-up from Group K in the last-32, which is currently Portugal.
If England win and then defeat their last-32 opponents (currently Senegal), they will play the winner of Mexico vs Ecuador or Scotland in Mexico City.
The prospect of taking on the co-hosts on home soil at altitude is a daunting one and they would then be likely to take on Brazil in the quarter-finals if they make it that far.
On paper, as it stands, Argentina or Portugal could then follow in the semi-final and their final opponent would depend on the other half of the draw.
Most likely winners
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the attacking juggernaut of Les Bleus are given the highest chance of winning the World Cup at 16.1 percent.
They’ve been in scintillating form and now Ousmane Dembele has joined Kylian Mbappe in a rich vein of scoring form, netting a half-hour hattrick against Norway.
Argentina, spearheaded by Lionel Messi’s rejuvenation, are now given the second-highest probability at 15.7 percent.
England are given 8.7 percent behind Spain on 13.2 per cent. Rounding off the rest of the top 10 are Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands and Germany.
Norway and Colombia are the so-called lesser sides in ninth and 10th respectively.
| TEAM | WIN PROBABILITY |
|---|---|
| FRANCE | 16.1 % |
| ARGENTINA | 15.7% |
| SPAIN | 13.2 % |
| ENGLAND | 8.7 % |
| BRAZIL | 6.6 % |
| PORTUGAL | 6.2% |
| NETHERLANDS | 5.5% |
| GERMANY | 4.6% |
| NORWAY | 4.5% |
| COLOMBIA | 2.8% |
Why are third placed teams going through?
The expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams required FIFA to rethink the format of the group stages.
FIFA’s initial plan was to have 16 groups consisting of three teams, with the winners and runners-up advancing to the new last- 32 stage of the competition, while the bottom ranked side would head home.
The governing body revised their plans in 2023, opting to revert to four-team groups citing ‘sporting integrity, player welfare, team travel, commercial and sporting attractiveness, as well as team and fan experience’.
A key consideration was that the revised format would reduce the risk of collusion between teams, preventing a scenario when two teams could play for a particular result in their final match to ensure both advanced at the expense of a side that had already played their two games.
The move back to four-team groups saw FIFA confirm that the top two in each of the 12 groups would advance to the last 32, with the top eight third placed teams also progressing.
A similar format has been in place at the European Championships since 2016, where four of the six best third-placed teams reach the knock-out stages.
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