Nigel Farage is on course to unseat more Labour MPs than Tories at the next general election with his Reform UK party surging in the polls.
In a stark warning for Sir Keir Starmer, a megapoll has revealed that the insurgent right-wing party is set to take more seats from Labour than the Conservatives.
And, just six months after Reform formed a bridgehead in parliament with five MPs, the survey revealed it would win 76 seats if an election were held now, with 60 of these currently held by the Labour Party.
Reform overtook the Conservatives in every major poll last week for the first time, with Techne’s weekly tracker for The Independent putting the party one point ahead of the Tories on 24 per cent.
Mr Farage’s party is also a whisker away from Labour, which sits on just 26 per cent, the poll revealed.
He told The Independent this week that this is just the beginning of a slide for the Tories, warning the party will now “start to fall quickly”.
And an MRP poll, carried out for the campaign group Hope Not Hate by Focaldata, revealed that Labour is even more vulnerable to the rise of Mr Farage’s party.
It suggested that even a relatively minor swing further towards Reform from Labour could cost the party an additional 76 seats it currently holds.
The survey, seen by The Observer, also showed a broadening in Mr Farage’s appeal to voters, with one in five of those minded to back Reform being “moderate, interventionist” voters, unlike those who previously backed his Ukip or Brexit parties in the past.
It suggested Labour would win the most seats at a general election, with 287, while the Conservatives would be second on 163.
But Reform would surge from five MPs to 76, overtaking the Liberal Democrats with 63 seats. A swing of just 3 per cent to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives would see the party jump to 169 seats, the poll showed.
Hope Not Hate chief executive Nick Lowles told the paper the polling should be “a wake-up call for everyone”.
He added: “Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain. The idea that Reform hurts the Conservatives more than Labour is plainly nonsense. As our polling graphically shows, the vast majority of seats Reform would win if there was an election today are from Labour, as are most of the seats they would take on a swing of 3 per cent or less.
“Strong anti-immigration views were dominant among those who voted Reform in the 2024 general election, but those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views.
“This includes a sizeable group of voters who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.”
Mr Lowles said Labour needs to deliver on Sir Keir’s promises to fix Britain’s public services and boost living standards in order to stave off Reform’s rise.
