Stats boffins have worked tirelessly to produce a Premier League ‘deserved’ table – and the results may surprise you.
Arsenal are expected to win the Premier League but a mid-table team breaks into the top three and a Champions League contender should get relegated, apparently.
It’s also hard luck for Manchester United in this table, with Ruben Amorim apparently not set to work miracles after all.
Analysts at Opta have looked at the expected goals for each team in their respective 11 games so far, and then simulated each game 10,000 times to produce an ‘expected points’ total.
Of course, this isn’t a perfect science. Clubs have faced different opponents so far, so the table is only ‘fairest’ when 38 matches have neen played.
But Opta suggest that Arsenal do indeed deserve to be top of the Premier League, with an expected points total of 24.1 – just under their real-life haul of 26.
Arsenal’s seat at the top of the Premier League table is deserved, according to Opta
Manchester United’s points total is only good enough for eighth, according to the stats wizards
Manchester City then sit second, as they do in the real world, but here’s why things get interesting.
In this ‘deserved’ table, Crystal Palace actually place third, despite only being 10th in real life.
That’s largely because Oliver Glasner’s side have underperformed massively compared to their expected goals. They’re ‘supposed’ to have scored 19.3 but have only bagged 14.
Rounding up the final Champions League spots in Opta’s table, which we will print in full below, we have Chelsea in fourth and Liverpool in fifth.
That will be sweet music to the ears of the Reds faithful, who are currently having a tricky time watching their team defend the title by placing eighth.
Guess who won’t be happy? Manchester United fans. Opta have the Red Devils ‘deserving’ to be eighth below Brighton and Brentford, who both climb five places compared to the real world.
Over at the other end of the table, it’s sorry news for Burnley.
Their expected points total means they should actually be propping up the table, dipping three places from their safe haven of 17th.
Aston Villa apparently only merit being 19th, not sixth, meaning they will likely struggle to sustain their league position if they don’t improve their chance creation
Sunderland’s European aspirations may be far-fetched as they only ‘deserve’ to be 15th
Probably the biggest shock of all comes next. That’s because Aston Villa – yes, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa – merit being 19th!
They are massively overperforming their expected goals and expected points. The Villans only supposed to have 10.6 points on the board, but actually have 18, meaning they will likely need to improve their chance creation to keep up their form. Emery’s men are flying in sixth in real life.
Completing the relegation zone are Wolves, which is no surprise considering they’re currently bottom with two points, but Opta’s table suggests they have been slightly hard done by.
Two clubs who are hugely outperforming their expected points right now are Sunderland and Tottenham. They sit fourth and fifth in real life when they are only expected to be 14th and 15th based on the chances they’ve created and the simulated results. Maybe Ange Postecoglou wasn’t that bad after all.
