Daniel Dubois and Oleksandr Usyk will go head-to-head at Wembley on Saturday night as the Brit looks to gain revenge for the defeat he suffered in Wroclaw just under two years ago.
On that occasion, Usyk delivered a devastating ninth-round knockout blow to defend his heavyweight titles.
Ahead of the pair’s second face-off at Wembley, Mail Sport’s Johnny Nelson gives his verdict on where the fight will be won and lost.
Usyk vs Dubois 2 is at Wembley Stadium on Saturday night as the Brit looks to gain revenge
STRENGTHS
First and foremost Usyk brings to the ring an unbeaten record and the confidence that entails. Also he has a brilliant boxing brain. His intelligence is the real deal, it’s a lifestyle choice he works hard at, not just something he tries in camp for six weeks.
That’s why a lot of his finishes come in the second half of the fight as he has been able to out-think his opponents under pressure. He thinks hard about what he does and that is why he has trodden a path of devastation through what British boxing has thrown in front of him.
His movement is also quick. Not necessarily his footwork but his arm speed. He likes to tap, tap, bash, constantly stretching out to tap his opponent so that they have to work to his pace anticipating what he’s going to throw. He’s not a big heavyweight but he punches like one.
Dubois is 27, 11 years younger than Usyk. Youth has to be an advantage. He has greater raw power, he’s one of the most athletic heavyweights out there and is naturally very strong with a great punch.
That means he always has a real puncher’s chance. Also, without sounding unkind, Daniel Dubois’ ignorance could work in his favour.
When Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury fought Usyk for the second time, they changed tactics, but overthought it and became hesitant executing their gameplan, fearing a repeat of their first bout. Dubois won’t think as deeply about his approach.
Usyk brings to the ring an unbeaten record, supreme confidence, and a brilliant boxing brain
Dubois will need to be aware of Usyk baiting him to reach and punch out – but being 11 years younger is an advantage
WEAKNESSES
Usyk laughs off criticism about his ability to take shots to the body, he says they don’t bother him, but Dubois knows from previous experience in their first encounter that they do.
Usyk may not lose to a body shot but if he gets hit with the right shot at the right time, there’s evidence from three or four occasions previously, that it hurts him.
He says age is not an issue for him too but he has already discussed retiring and once you mention that word you are already edging a step out of the ring.
You have to stay fully committed to stay at the top. Dubois’ boxing intelligence is not as sharp as Usyk. He has durability but it’s whether he has the mental strength. I always maintain Tony Bellew was beating Usyk in their encounter but ultimately ran out of steam.
Dubois needs to be aware of Usyk baiting him to reach and punch out, subsequently using unnecessary energy and tiring out.
Usyk likes to laugh off criticism but he knows he can be hurt by persistent shots to the body
Dubois is a strong contender to win given his ability to land brutal punches – but does he have the mental strength?
TACTICS
Dubois’ tactics have to be to blow away Usyk with his power in the early rounds and make it a messy fight.
Lean on Usyk, drag him around, utilise that natural strength. Usyk will have to weather a storm because Don Charles, Dubois’ coach, is a great tactician.
Charles will tell Dubois to sit on Usyk and not stand off him. We saw when Derek Chisora used roughouse tactics to good effect against Usyk, it unsettled him. Chisora said he had to be prepared beforehand to be ‘more crazy’ than Usyk and not go in half-hearted.
Dubois has confidence from winning his last three fights and that punch. But, as Muhammad Ali once said: ‘There’s no point in being able to hit hard if there’s nothing to hit.’
Dubois’ power is great, and there have been many heavy-handed fighters through the years, but it means nothing if you can’t hit anything. You only get one chance to make a first impression so Usyk will have worked out how Dubois likes to fight from their first bout.
Usually, when you see anybody who’s boxed Usyk once, the second time it’s even easier for him. He will have downloaded the blueprint, will keep to his good movement and try punching off his step out.
Dubois has to take that movement, that hand pace, away from his opponent, so he has a target to hit.
Dubois must try to blow away Usyk with his power early on and make it a messy fight
The Brit has to deal with Usyk’s movement and guile to land his heavy punches
VERDICT
I may have a sneaky little flutter on Dubois to clip Usyk and produce a surprise. He will always have that puncher’s chance.
But my head tells me Usyk steps up again and wins inside the distance.
