How should success for Gregor Townsend and Scotland be measured? For a man so immersed in high-performance analytics and data, David Nucifora doesn’t seem to have a quantifiable answer.
Since returning from his secondment on the British and Irish Lions tour of his native Australia, Scottish Rugby’s performance director says he’s been working hard putting in place the measures he believes will provide the necessary auxiliary support to the national teams going forward.
‘I know some of you thought I might have been sitting on the beach but that wasn’t the case,’ he insisted rather drolly, evidently aware of how he is perceived by a sceptical Scottish rugby public.
To that end, Nucifora has been busy interviewing and appointing a number of key department heads ‘to enhance the performance pathway, nutrition, physiotherapy and rehabilitation, analysis, athletic performance, along with sport science’.
One of those hired is Al Kellock who will move on from his post as managing director of Glasgow Warriors to become head of performance pathways.
A new business analyst has also been recruited to ‘ensure there is connectivity between data and performance’. Everything will be measurable against set metrics, targets and expectations.
David Nucifora won’t be with Scottish Rugby by the time the 2027 World Cup comes around
head coach Gregor Townsend has been awarded an extended contract by Scottish Rugby
It feels like something of an anomaly, then, that the head coach of the national team won’t be judged in similar fashion.
In addressing the decision to award Townsend a contract extension until the 2027 World Cup, Nucifora instead reached for a more emotive explanation, leaning on an unscientific belief that Townsend has performed well in his eight years in charge and will continue to deliver improvements over the next two and beyond.
The data, though, doesn’t back up that assertion. Townsend’s stewardship has delivered many highlights including an unexpected but very welcome dominance over England, breakthrough away wins in London, Paris and Cardiff, and a strong run of results against Australia.
To counter that, however, there have also been numerous disappointments, most notably the failure to finish higher than third in any Six Nations campaign and successive pool stage exits at the last two World Cups.
It remains hard to shake the feeling that a squad comprising some outstanding individuals — Finn Russell and Sione Tuipulotu among them — has never fulfilled its potential.
Townsend is already the longest-serving Scotland head coach in the professional era and should chalk up his 100th match in charge against England during next year’s Six Nations.
Every manager or head coach reaches a point where they have taken their squad as far as they can before fresh ideas and impetus are required to help give the whole place renewed energy.
Scottish Rugby evidently don’t feel that Townsend has reached that saturation point as they instead hand him a third chance at leading the nation into a World Cup.
What is lacking, however, is hard, concrete evidence to demonstrate that is the right call to make. Instead it is one that has been made on feelings and a desire to maintain continuity as Nucifora prepares to disappear back Down Under in a year’s time.
‘We don’t look at success criteria in isolation,’ he said when asked how Townsend should be assessed. ‘You don’t look at just wins and losses.
‘In the case of Gregor, I’ve assessed the fact that I think he’s a world-class coach. He’s doing an excellent job with regards to how he’s running the team.
Scotland have enjoyed some fantastic one-off wins but have still to challenge in Six Nations
‘And now he’s in a situation where he’s got a team that is moving in the right direction with their experience, and a high-performance unit around him who will be able to assist in the ongoing development of that team and staff. It all points in the right direction.
‘No one ever is sitting there going, “I think I’ll just do the same as what I did yesterday” because people just race past you in this business. In high performance you never sit still. You always have to be evolving.’
The general consensus is that professional sport is a results-driven basis which would seem to point towards a more suitable candidate to lead Scotland moving forward.
Franco Smith helped Glasgow Warriors reach the Challenge Cup final in his first season in charge then won the United Rugby Championship in his second. His third year, while not as successful, still saw Warriors reach the Champions Cup quarter-finals and the semi-finals of the URC.
With Smith’s contract also up next year, it seemed a natural fit for him to succeed Townsend but for now the South African will need to bide his team having been awarded a contract extension at Scotstoun until 2028.
That would seem to, again, leave him in prime position to take over from Townsend post-World Cup but Nucifora could offer no reassurances on that front while conceding Scottish Rugby risk losing Smith in the meantime.
‘We’ve got no clear plan mapped out,’ he added. ‘What I will say is that we’re really fortunate to have a coach of the calibre of Franco in the system for a year beyond the World Cup. So that’s a positive.
‘Anything could happen (with Smith moving on). We have contracts but things happen in this business. I’d rather be sitting here talking about the fact that people want to take our staff than the fact that no one wants them. I continue to see that as a positive.’
Franco Smith was backed for the Scotland job but is now staying on at Glasgow Warriors
And what about Nucifora himself? Kellock seems to have manoeuvred himself into position to possibly succeed the Australian when his own deal expires next August but again there are no certainties.
‘We had applicants from all around the world for that role and Al definitely won it on merit,’ he added. ‘He performed extremely well.
‘Al’s got a really wide skill set. He understands performance rugby. He’s got that experience from both as a player and as an administrator. So he understands those components of it really well.
‘He’s got a real interest in performance rugby obviously and he’s seen this as an opportunity to be able to build his experience base further.
‘I’m really looking forward to working with him and I think together we can really drive this area a long way. Where that leads to beyond that, I don’t know.
‘He may grab that with both hands and prove that he is the best person for the job when we go to market to look for someone else (as performance director). But he’s certainly approaching it the right way by taking this role on.’
