A new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) challenges the assumption that growing NHS waiting lists are fueling the increase in health-related benefit claims.
The study found little evidence linking the two, suggesting other factors are responsible for the rising benefits bill.
This comes as the government unveils new welfare reforms, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer highlighting the current system’s flawed incentives, which he argues discourage work and burden taxpayers with escalating costs.
“We’ve found ourselves in a worst of all worlds situation – with the wrong incentives – discouraging people from working, the taxpayer funding a spiralling bill,” Starmer stated.
While some experts have pointed to lengthy NHS waiting times as a potential driver of increased benefit claims, the IFS research contradicts this theory.
Data reveals a significant rise in working-age adults claiming disability benefits in England – a 41 per cent jump from 1.9 million in November 2019 to 2.7 million in May 2024. Similarly, incapacity benefit claims saw a 40 per cent increase over the same period, rising from two million to 2.9 million claimants.
During this time, the NHS waiting list for planned treatments also grew substantially, increasing by 67 per cent from 4.6 million to 7.6 million, accompanied by longer typical waiting times.
For its new study, the IFS looked in detail at NHS waiting lists by region and how they lined up with people claiming disability benefits (which supplement incomes for those whose cost of living is higher as a result of their disability), and incapacity benefits (which are paid to people whose health limits their ability to work).
It concluded that “increases in NHS waiting times and waiting lists for pre-planned hospital treatment and some mental health treatment have not been a major factor behind the large increase in the number of working-age adults claiming health-related benefits.”
The study found that regions with larger increases in NHS waits did not, on average, experience larger increases in the number of working-age adults receiving health-related benefits.
In fact, a large fraction of the NHS hospital waiting list is made up of children and pensioners (44 per cent), with the remaining 56per cent people of working age.
Researchers did find some “suggestive evidence” of a relationship between waits and disability benefit claims for mental health conditions, but this did not hold when narrowed down to people of working age.
There was also a weak relationship between the waiting list for NHS trauma and orthopaedic care and musculoskeletal disability benefit claims, but this also disappeared when looking at working-age adults.
The report said: “The magnitude of any effect is small: in the case of mental-health-related disability benefit claims, our central point estimates suggest that NHS waits could perhaps explain 6–7 per cent of the increase; in the case of musculoskeletal claims, perhaps 7–8 per cent. Yet these estimates – like all of our results – must be interpreted with caution.”
Evidence from the Department for Work and Pensions, which estimates that 41 per cent of health-related benefit claimants are on a waiting list for treatment for their health condition, also does not explain what is happening, the study continued.
It argued that benefit claimants themselves say there are many other factors preventing them from finding paid work, such as that work would make their health condition worse, it is difficult to travel and their health condition fluctuates too much.
Researchers concluded: “Our findings imply that reductions in waiting lists and waiting times, while welcome in their own right, would be unlikely to lead to a meaningful reduction in health-related benefit claims, and that further research is desperately needed to understand what factors are in fact driving increasing claimant numbers.”
The study was funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
Max Warner, senior research economist at IFS and an author of the report, said: “Our new analysis very strongly suggests that rising NHS waiting lists for elective hospital treatment have not been a major factor behind recent increases in the number of working-age adults receiving benefits for ill health.
“The main explanation for rising benefit claims almost certainly lies elsewhere.
“Reducing hospital waiting times is a sensible policy objective, not least as it would benefit those who use the NHS – but we shouldn’t necessarily expect it to also deliver a significant reduction in health-related benefit claims. That’s a separate policy nut to crack.”
A Government spokesperson said: “The current welfare system is broken, and we are working to make it fairer for the taxpayer.
“Our reforms to health and disability benefits will genuinely support people back into work, while putting the welfare system on a more sustainable footing so the safety net is always there to protect those who need it most.
“Through our 10-year health plan, we will also tackle health inequalities and shift healthcare from sickness to prevention to support more people to live healthier lives for longer, regardless of background.”
