Half of Britons think net migration to the UK is on the rise – despite it plummeting to its lowest level since the Covid pandemic.
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show that, in the 12 months to June 2025, the number of people entering a country minus the number of people who leave each year, was an estimated 204,000 – down 69 per cent from 649,000 a year earlier and the lowest annual figure since 2021. The dramatic fall has been driven by a big drop in people coming to Britain for work or study.
But new research conducted for think tank British Future shows the disconnect between the public perception of the number of people coming into the country and the reality. In a weighted survey of around 3,000 adults, 49 per cent believed net migration had increased in the year up to May 2025.
Just 16 per cent of people correctly identified that it had fallen, and 51 per cent of people surveyed said that they thought migration would rise again next year.
The revelation comes ahead of the publication of updated statistics, due to be published on Thursday morning, which are expected to show that net migration has fallen even further, prompting calls from some Labour MPs to scrap Shabana Mahmood’s radical immigration reforms.
Labour MPs hope to use the updated figures to pile pressure on the Home Office to reverse some of the new settlement rules that will make it harder for foreign nationals to stay in the UK.
Net migration figures published by the ONS on Thursday morning are expected to fall below 200,000, and could fall further by the end of 2026.
The research for British Future also found that people overestimated the proportion of UK immigration that is made up of people claiming asylum, and underestimated migration for work and study.
Britons estimated that asylum seekers account for 33 per cent of immigration, the survey found, when the true figure is around nine per cent, according to a House of Commons briefing on asylum statistics.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: “A massive perception gap is shaping not just the immigration debate but British politics more broadly. Politicians need to take responsibility for this.
“It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain”.
Net migration rose sharply after the pandemic to 681,000 in the year to June 2022, and then to 924,000 in the year to June 2023. It then fell in the year to June 2024 to 649,000 and then again to 204,000 for 2025.
The jump in migration after the pandemic was driven by a combination of the lifting of travel restrictions following Covid, new humanitarian resettlement schemes for people from Ukraine and Hong Kong, and the introduction of new immigration rules following the UK’s departure from the EU.
The subsequent fall was driven by a drop in the number of people from outside the European Union arriving to study or work, and an increase in people moving out of the country. There were also fewer people arriving in the UK through the resettlement schemes.
The drop in those from outside the EU arriving for study or work was a result of decisions taken under the Conservatives, and continued under Labour, to stop care workers and overseas students from bringing family members to the UK, as well as raising the salary requirements for some visas.
Dr Ben Brindle, of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told The Independent: “If you look at what’s happening right at the moment, then net migration is coming down and the public aren’t often aware of that. But if you take a slightly broader context, net migration has been high. Maybe we can be a bit charitable to the public for not being across the technical points of migration.”
Speaking about whether net migration will stay low, Dr Brindle added: “The broader [downward] trend has been because the Conservatives introduced restrictions, that Labour have maintained. Levels of immigration have come down and levels of emigration have gone up as well.” He explained that the low numbers could rise as levels of emigration, people leaving the UK, slow.
Bobby Duffy, director of the policy institute at Kings College London, who jointly published the research, said: “We know misconceptions are often more a reflection of an emotional reaction than a calm consideration of the facts, particularly on highly-charged issues like immigration.
“The public are partly signalling that they’re still concerned about immigration. But that doesn’t mean that facts don’t matter.
“Currently there is very little talk about how much immigration has decreased, and instead the public only really see a political and media focus on the risks and how it needs stricter control.”
A Home Office spokesperson said: “Net migration under this government is already down by 70 per cent but there is still progress to be made.
“This government has a proud history of welcoming those who contribute to this country, but we must restore order and control at our borders.
“The home secretary has set out her plans for a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and integration and ends Britain’s reliance on cheap overseas workers.”
