The Opta supercomputer has revealed the Premier League team most in danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League after the race for the top five took another twist.
Chelsea were the only one of the main contenders to win in the latest midweek round of matches after beating rivals Aston Villa as Manchester United and Liverpool suffered chastening defeats.
And Opta’s supercomputer has produced 10,000 simulations of how the top five will finish at the end of a fascinating Premier League season.
Aston Villa have an 80 per cent chance of securing a Champions League place ahead of Man United at 76.2 per cent – despite their recent struggles under Unai Emery.
Chelsea are rated at 65.7 per cent to end in the top five, which is almost guaranteed to be enough to qualify as a result of England’s high UEFA coefficient.
Liverpool will fail in their pursuit of a spot in next year’s competition, according to the supercomputer, which gives the Reds a 63.1 per cent chance.
Opta’s supercomputer predicts Liverpool will finish outside of the Champions League spots
If the supercomputer is correct, Villa will finish third ahead of Man United in fourth and Chelsea in fifth, with Liverpool narrowly missing out in sixth.
Brentford are the nearest challengers to the four teams but have only a 10.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top five, followed by Everton, Newcastle and Bournemouth.
United kept hold of third spot despite suffering their first defeat under Michael Carrick in a 2-1 reverse at Newcastle on Wednesday.
Carrick’s team are level on points with Villa but ahead of Emery’s men on goal difference.
Chelsea, 4-1 winners at Villa on Wednesday, are three adrift in fifth but have the same points as Liverpool, whose Champions League hopes suffered a blow when they were beaten 2-1 at bottom side Wolves on Tuesday.
United host Villa in their next Premier League outing in a crucial clash in the Champions League race, while Liverpool welcome struggling Spurs and Chelsea entertain Newcastle after a break for the FA Cup fifth round.
The Red Devils still have to play both Chelsea and Liverpool in their last nine matches, while the Blues go to Anfield in early May.
Villa have another avenue to European football’s premier competition as they will seal a Champions League spot if they win the Europa League. They are the bookies’ favourite to lift the trophy and play Lille in the last 16, with the first leg taking place in France next Thursday.
Chelsea and Liverpool will also qualify should either of them win this season’s Champions League.
