Moldovans will head to the polls Sunday for a parliamentary election fraught with claims of Russian interference.
The vote could decide the country’s geopolitical future: a stark choice between East and West.
Landlocked between Ukraine and European Union member Romania, Moldova has pursued a westward path toward the EU in recent years, but Sunday’s ballot to elect a new 101-seat parliament will determine whether that continues or if the country of about 2.5 million people is pulled back into Moscow’s orbit.
The race pits the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which has held a strong parliamentary majority since 2021, against several key Russia-friendly opponents.
The lack of viable pro-European partners has left a lot of uncertainty over potential outcomes in the pivotal ballot.
If PAS fails to win a majority on Sunday, “it would mean an end to EU integration,” Igor Grosu said, the PAS leader and speaker of parliament. “It would mean dependence, halting all justice reforms, infrastructure projects, everything … there is no middle option.”
“All our efforts and messages are about mobilising to win a parliamentary majority,” he added.
Race to counter Russia’s alleged ‘hybrid war’
Besides voter turnout, the outcome of Sunday’s high-stakes ballot might depend on how effective Moldovan authorities have been in their cat-and-mouse race to outwit Russia’s alleged “hybrid war” – the aim of which they say is to derail the country’s EU path.
Moldova’s Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, warned that Russia is spending hundreds of millions of euros to try to “seize power in Chisinau” in a campaign he described as “increasingly radical.”
The alleged schemes include a large-scale vote-buying operation, cyberattacks on critical government infrastructure, a plan to incite mass riots around the election, and a sprawling disinformation campaign online to sway voters.
Modovan authorities have tried to crack down by conducting hundreds of raids in recent weeks, in which scores have been detained. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said this week in a public address that the Kremlin “has accomplices here in Moldova,” describing them as people “willing to sell out their country for money.”
Moscow has repeatedly denied meddling in Moldova. In a statement on Thursday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed allegations of Russian interference in Moldova’s elections as “anti-Russian” and “unsubstantiated.”
Sunday’s vote will also be held less than a year after Moldovans voted narrowly in favour of securing the country’s EU path, the same day Sandu won a second term in a separate vote. But those votes were also overshadowed by widespread claims of Russian interference and a massive vote-buying scheme, which Moscow denied.
Voters confront high inflation and poverty
In recent years, as the country has lurched from crisis to crisis, Moldovans have faced rampant inflation, increasing costs of living and high poverty rates, which may have diminished support for the ruling pro-Western government.
To relieve the strain, Brussels is providing Moldova with up to 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) between 2025 and 2027, 270 million euros of which was released in July for projects like a new hospital and helping to lower energy bills.
Eugen, a 41-year-old artist in Chisinau, who did not want to give his surname due to the tense political climate, said he favours a path toward the EU, but acknowledges voters are fatigued from “high expectations and expecting miracles.”
“We need to have more patience in our course to the European Union,” he said, adding that the 27-nation bloc is “stability, it’s human rights … some kind of unity, some kind of prosperity and meritocracy.”
Russia-friendly opposition claims abuses
A key opponent of PAS in Sunday’s election is the Russia-friendly Patriotic Electoral Bloc, or BEP, a group of political parties that wants “friendship with Russia, “permanent neutrality” and a “state that serves the people, not officials.”
On Friday, the Central Electoral Commission barred the Heart of Moldova party, which was part of the BEP, from participating in the race.
The commission’s action was based on a ruling a day earlier by the Chisinau Court of Appeal, which restricted the party’s activities for 12 months. Earlier this month, raids on party members led to allegations of voter bribery, illegal party financing and money laundering.
Irina Vlah, leader of the Heart of Moldova, condemned “the abusive decision” and called it a “political spectacle, concocted a long time ago” by the ruling party. Vlah was also banned on Thursday from entering Latvia, Estonia and Poland, which accused her of “helping the Russian Federation” to interfere in the parliamentary elections.
Igor Dodon, a former pro-Russian president and the leader of the Socialist Party, which is also part of the BEP, lashed out at Sandu and the ruling PAS, saying their “days are numbered.”
“They understand that their end is near, so they resort to abusing our colleagues in the bloc,” Dodon said in a post on Facebook. “We will win the elections, and together we will defend our victory.”
Later the same day, the Central Electoral Commission also excluded the Moldova Mare party from the race, citing illegal financing, undeclared foreign funds and vote-buying. The Moldova Mare’s leader, Victoria Furtuna, was sanctioned by the EU in July for receiving “significant support” from pro-Russian fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor.
Diaspora could play a decisive role
Moldova’s large diaspora is expected to play a decisive role in Sunday’s outcome. In last year’s presidential run-off, a record number of 327,000 voters cast ballots abroad, more than 82 per cent of whom favoured pro-Western President Sandu, which ultimately secured her reelection.
Most local polls don’t include the country’s diaspora, and they also indicate that about a third of voters remain undecided, which leaves a big question mark over the vote. In the 2021 parliamentary election, turnout was just over 48 per cent.
“Moldova now has a clear path toward becoming a member of the European Union,” said Iulian Groza, executive director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms think tank. “Russia is looking at these elections as their ultimate battle — so this is why the stakes are very high.”
Disinformation could have an outsized impact
Valeriu Pasa, president of the Chisinau-based think tank Watchdog, told the AP that while the economic climate may have turned some voters off PAS, the intensity of Russian interference and disinformation would have exacerbated diminishing support.
“On one hand, there is the economic situation and not-perfect quality of governance, and additionally, it is Russian disinformation,” he said. “For example, if normally, because of the (high) prices, you should lose 3 per cent, when it’s overwhelmed by Russian propaganda, you will lose 9 per cent.”
Pasa added that during last year’s election cycle, Russia used more “sophisticated narratives, conspiracies, these complex ideas,” but has resorted to flooding the information space.
“Now it’s just a big quantity of fakes, AI-generated content,” he said. “We didn’t get rid of the Soviet legacy of Soviet propaganda, which impacted a lot of people.”
.png?trim=0,200,0,200&width=1200&height=800&crop=1200:800 "Tesco, Asda and Morrisons axe supplier after secret farm footage shows piglets beaten to death – UK Times")