A “major” upgrade to the Met Office’s forecasting system is poised to mitigate flight delays and bolster winter preparations, the forecaster has announced.
The enhanced technology provides clearer, more accurate cloud and fog predictions, essential for managing airline schedules.
Winter temperature forecasts are now more realistic, which the Met Office says will aid energy grid management, road gritting, and aeroplane de-icing.
Crucially, global severe weather warnings can now be issued sooner, with forecasts extended from seven to 10 days.
This represents the “most significant scientific upgrade in more than three years,” according to the forecaster.
Science Minister Lord Vallance said in a statement: “The Met Office’s new supercomputer has allowed more accurate forecasting, particularly for cloud and fog, two difficult areas for forecasting.
“Improvements in weather science benefit us all, from more flights running on time, to roads being gritted when they need to be, to enabling earlier preparations for storms that risk lives and damage to homes and businesses.”
The Met Office’s director of science, Simon Vosper, told a press briefing: “We made a range of improvements, first and very topical at the moment is the UK’s rainfall, so the quality of our rainfall forecasts has improved very markedly.
“We’re getting much more realistic rainfall intensities from the modelling system.”
This follows the forecasters’ announcement that it has rained every day so far this year in the south west of England and South Wales, with 50% more rainfall than usual in January.
Mr Vosper added: “The representation of cloud in the modelling system has improved, and particularly the height of the cloud cover, be it low or high cloud and very low cloud which is of course mist or fog.
“That greater accuracy is particularly beneficial for aviation.
“When you’re trying to (run) busy airports, organise flight itineraries and run busy airports like Heathrow, low cloud and fog can be a real problem, so having more accurate forecasts there is very, very beneficial.”
It is the first upgrade on the Met Office’s supercomputer, supplied by Microsoft, that it transitioned to in May.
The Met Office said: “The upgrade marks a major step forward in the UK’s weather and climate science capability delivering tangible improvements that will make forecasts easier to interpret. ”
On its improved cloud and fog guidance, it said: “This advancement will be vital for industries such as aviation, where precise weather information is critical to manage flight schedules, avoid delays, and ensure safe take offs and landings, especially in situations with low cloud bases, mist and fog.”
