The man who successfully predicted the last three World Cup winners says the Netherlands will be victorious in North America this summer.
By his own admission, UK-based German economist Joachim Klement admits there is an element of luck about his forecast model getting it right in Brazil, Russia and Qatar.
But maybe the Dutch — the architects of Total Football and arguably the best team never to win the World Cup — are due a bit of good fortune after losing the final on three occasions and twice on penalties.
Can Ronald Koeman’s team go one better than the Oranje of 1974, 1978 and 2010? Probably not. They would appear to lack the flair and ingenuity of some of the great Dutch teams, and arrive at their Kansas City base close to the England squad on the back of a troubled build-up.
The Dutch FA have made reaching the semi-finals a minimum requirement, and even that feels like a stretch for this team ahead of tonight’s Group F opener against Japan in Dallas.
The game brings Koeman back to the place of his last appearance for his country, a defeat in a quarter-final classic in Texas to eventual winners Brazil when the US last hosted the tournament in 1994. It was also the last World Cup that the Netherlands lost a group game (to Belgium in Orlando), having reached the knock-out phase on every occasion since 1974.
Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands side lack flair and rely on functionality rather than flair
With Sweden and Tunisia making up a challenging group, however, Koeman will be keen to secure top spot and avoid the likely scenario of meeting Brazil again in the first knock-out round if they finish second. ‘People may not see us as one of the favourites to win the World Cup,’ he says. ‘But the strength of the Netherlands is that we can beat anyone because the ability is there in our squad.’
Still, the Dutch preparations have been far from perfect. After qualifying for the World Cup unbeaten in their group, they lost to Algeria in Rotterdam and then snatched a late win over Uzbekistan in the final warm-up game behind closed doors in New York at the start of this week.
Then there’s the injury situation. Jurrien Timber left camp before the Uzbekistan game after failing to recover from the groin problem that kept him out of the final two months of Arsenal’s title-winning campaign, and first-choice goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen suffered a hip injury that makes the Brighton No 1 a doubt to face a very capable Japan tonight.
Koeman was already without Tottenham’s Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten due to long-term ACL injuries, and Manchester United’s Matthijs de Ligt to back surgery, while Frenkie de Jong, Memphis Depay and Denzel Dumfries all spent a chunk of the season on the sidelines. Depay was the joint second-highest scorer in European qualifying, and eclipsed Robin van Persie as Holland’s all-time top marksman when he struck twice against Lithuania in September, but United fans will attest that he can blow very hot and cold.
Now 32 and playing in Brazil for Corinthians, Depay is by no means the only ageing Dutch star for whom this is likely to be their last World Cup.
If he hasn’t fully recovered from injury in time to start against Japan, then Donyell Malen is set to lead the attack alongside West Ham’s Crysencio Summerville and Cody Gakpo, of Liverpool, having been on fire for Roma since joining on loan from Aston Villa in January.
Koeman’s trusted 4-3-3 formation is expected to feature a gifted midfield of De Jong, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders of Manchester City.
But it’s typical of a Netherlands team built on functionality rather than flair that defence is their main strength.
It is anchored by Virgil van Dijk, who has been a colossus for his country but turns 35 in a few weeks at the end of a difficult season. Tottenham target Jan Paul van Hecke is set to play alongside him with Spurs’ Micky van de Ven expected to get the nod at left back ahead of Nathan Ake.
Virgil van Dijk anchors the Dutch side but turns 35 in a few weeks at the end of a difficult season
More than half of Koeman’s squad play in the Premier League, and he will be relying on their experience and know-how to make up for the lack of sparkle.
The 63-year-old has also had to contend with personal problems in qualifying for the World Cup, at times leaving camp to help care for his wife Bartina, who has been undergoing cancer treatment.
Now in his second spell as coach, the former Netherlands captain knows a strong start is needed to convince some Dutch fans that their team are genuine challengers.
They may not match up to their predecessors — the great teams of Cryuff, Neeskens and Krol that lost the final to West Germany 1974 and Argentina in 1978, or even the class of 2010, who fell short against Spain — but you can never completely write off the Netherlands. Just ask Joachim Klement.
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