Club executives and senior football figures believe that the Manchester City case could still go until at least October before the initial outcome, as the controversy threatens to complicate another Premier League season. Some club leaders have even speculated that it might arrive in the campaign’s second international break, from 4-18 October, given previous patterns regarding similar cases.
An outcome was expected last season, given that the hearing concluded in early December. It has nevertheless rumbled on into the summer, and means another season faces the weight of potential upheaval and drastic change through possible points deductions. Manchester City stridently insist upon their innocence.
Actual details of the process have been kept under lock and key, with only those directly involved knowing exactly how it is going, due to the sensitivity of the case. The charges involve accusations of City breaching football’s financial regulations, and Freedom of Information requests revealed that the British embassy in Abu Dhabi discussed the case. Bloomberg even reported that UAE officials raised the charges in a meeting with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in 2024, but Lammy said it was a matter for the Premier League.
Insiders with knowledge of certain aspects of the investigation are nevertheless predicting a September-October outcome, with some believing it will come in one of the international breaks. The initial outcome of City’s Associated Party Transaction case ended up arriving on 7 October 2024, which was at the start of that period’s Fifa window. Such stances have nevertheless been subject to change, given there was previously a widespread view that the initial decisions would be published around Easter, and the end of April.
The controversy – which has now been ongoing since the initial Der Spiegel “Football Leaks” in November 2018 and resulted in the Premier League announcing 100+ charges in February 2023 – is commonly seen as an “existential moment” for the league and the wider game regardless of outcome.
Premier League insiders say it has also had another effect, which is in delaying proper governance. Clubs are now unwilling to push through or even suggest any major changes in the running of the competition, due to the belief that the outcome of the case could change absolutely everything.
There is also a split between clubs regarding what should happen if the most severe charges are proven and City are punished. While a minority would push for outright expulsion in such an event, that is seen as unlikely since it would require a special shareholder vote and a majority of 15 clubs. Other clubs are more in favour of a potential punishment allowing everyone to get on with it, as they feel the controversy is now causing undue damage to the Premier League. That very view is nevertheless seen by other executives as a concerted “tactic” by City, since the stakeholders are more likely to become fatigued by the process the longer it goes on.
Another split revolves around the idea of “a stay” in the event of a potential City punishment, and whether the club face sanctions straight away or after an appeal. One senior club executive told The Independent that there is unlikely to be any tangible change to anything for even a year after the initial outcome, due to the various stages of the process as well as possible appeals.
As it is, City themselves are understood to be “confident” they will be cleared.
