Latest Senedd poll a Labour ‘wake-up call’, says ex-minister | UK News

The latest Senedd opinion poll is a “wake-up call” for Labour in Wales and Westminster, according to a former Welsh government minister.

Mick Antoniw’s comments came after figures published earlier this week suggested support for Labour, ahead of next year’s Senedd election, was at a record low of 14%, well behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

Welsh government Health Secretary Jeremy Miles said the survey was “a reminder that the election is a choice”.

However, a Welsh Labour grandee said the party was facing “the biggest kicking in our history”.

Labour has won all six Senedd elections since devolution began in 1999, securing the largest number of seats each time.

It has also won in Wales at every UK general election since 1922.

However, recent polling suggests Plaid Cymru and Reform are well placed to replace Labour as the biggest party in May.

The level of support for Labour varies from poll to poll, but this week’s poll by ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University painted a particularly bleak picture for the party.

It indicated support for Plaid Cymru was at 30%, Reform at 29% and Labour at 14%.

“I think it’s a wake-up call to all of us, both in Wales and at UK level together,” Antoniw told the ‘s Politics Wales.

“We have to recognise the things that we have to do to be real Labour.

“What we really do need, particularly at a UK level I think, is a clear vision – a vision of hope, a vision of change,” the former counsel general added.

Asked if Keir Starmer and the UK government understood the scale of the challenge facing Labour in Wales, Antoniw said: “I think they are beginning to get it.”

He added that the UK Labour government was doing “lots of really good things” but they were being “masked by some of the mistakes that were made really early on”.

Antoniw said he was “confident” Labour could still win the election, however, speaking anonymously, another Labour Member of the Senedd (MS) was less positive.

“The tide has turned against us… it feels like [First Minister Eluned Morgan] is swimming against the tide and she’s trying her very best, she’s exhausting herself and it’s difficult to watch.

“It feels like an end of a chapter.”

The same MS said the current mood within the Labour group was “grim”, with members reeling from Hefin David’s death last month but also still struggling to move on from the tensions that came to the fore last year under Vaughan Gething’s leadership.

“The strain is there, the damaged relationships are there,” they said.

Polling expert Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University, said one of the problems facing Welsh Labour is that there is “a narrative building in Wales that if you want to stop Reform then the party you vote for is Plaid” and so many previous Labour voters are indicating they will vote tactically for Plaid Cymru in 2026.

Welsh Labour is also “paying the price”, he said, for the unpopularity of the UK Labour government.

A Labour grandee agreed that the “devastating” fall in support for the party in Wales was largely down to the “inadequacies of London Labour” including the Treasury “priding itself on what it doesn’t spend”.

He warned that the party was facing the “biggest kicking in our history” and “if Eluned wasn’t there, it would be down the hill”.

In recent months Eluned Morgan has sought to put distance between her Welsh Labour administration and the UK Labour government, pursuing an approach she has called “the Red Welsh Way”.

She is “right to accurately emphasise diversion”, the grandee said.

Meanwhile, a senior Welsh Labour MP said the UK leadership was “a massive issue” and that the party was in “a general mess”.

However, looking ahead to May’s election they said: “We know what we’re up against, so it almost makes it easier.”

We need a “fixed and focused” campaign and “need to have a positive, strong message”, they emphasised.

A UK Labour source defended the Westminster government’s record in Wales, including extra funding for rail.

And referring to Welsh Labour’s time in power in Cardiff, they said: “Individuals who are so ready to attack the UK government must take personal responsibility for the past 26 years and the challenges we now face.”

However, a senior Welsh Labour source, working behind the scenes and close to Eluned Morgan, told Politics Wales that Welsh MPs needed to increase the pressure on the prime minister.

“If they said to Keir, ‘you’re going to lose Wales, do you realise that?’ then he might start listening.”

The same source said that Morgan had “quietly changed her political team over the summer”, replacing former MP Wayne David as her top adviser.

“It’s already having a big impact on the government’s focus,” they said.

They also pointed out many Labour MSs will be stepping down in May.

“Let them go with thanks and take the past drama with them,” the source added.

Asked about the latest poll on Thursday, Wales’ Health Secretary Jeremy Miles said: “Polls are important for us to look at but they change from time to time and so you can’t take one poll on its own.”

“Clearly the most recent poll is not a positive picture for us but the truth of it is it’s a reminder for all of us that the election is a choice for people in Wales.”

On Friday Miles became the 14th sitting Labour MS to announce he would not be standing again at May’s election.

Politics Wales is available to watch at 10:00 BST on Sunday on One Wales and iPlayer