Labour has launched a social media attack on the Green Party amid warnings from pollsters and MPs that Zack Polanski’s party could win the Gorton and Denton by-election.
As voters prepare to go to the polls in the Greater Manchester seat on 26 February, Labour posted a video advert pleading with them not to turn their backs on the party and support the Greens.
The post highlights polling that shows Labour is the closest to rivalling Reform in the constituency, while attacking Green policies on legalising drugs.
But it comes as Labour MPs have privately briefed The Independent that they expect the Greens to be the beneficiaries of anger with Labour and a tactical anti-Reform vote.
The by-election was called after disgraced former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne announced his resignation from Parliament. It came after it emerged he wrote that he hoped a 72-year-old female constituent “croaks” before the next general election in a WhatsApp group with Labour councillors.
But after deep divisions emerged within Labour over Manchester mayor Andy Burnham being blocked as the candidate for the must-win seat, there is a fear that a so-called “Caerphilly scenario” will hit Labour and see voters tack to the Greens instead.
In the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Senedd last year Labour lost the seat it had held for more than a century, coming third to Plaid Cymru and Reform.
One Labour MP told The Independent: “I will campaign very hard for us to win but the leadership has made it very hard for us.”
Another said: “They want us to go and knock doors but we all know it is between the Greens and Reform. It’s Caerphilly all over again. The Greens winning is actually the worst case scenario because it confirms our vote is going to them.”
The concerns come as the Greens dramatically climb in the polls since the election of Mr Polanski as leader.
Professor Sir John Curtice told The Independent: “This could be a four-way fight between Labour, Reform, the Greens and George Galloway. The latter two will compete for and could split the Muslim vote as they did in the seat in 2024, doing a lot of damage to Labour.”
Pollster Lord Robert Hayward said: “I can foresee the Greens winning. I do think it’s worse for Labour because it identifies an English alternative to Labour on the left which the SNP and Plaid currently fulfil in Scotland and Wales.”
Mr Polanski recently told The Independent that he wants “the Greens to replace the Labour Party”.
But Labour is fighting back against the scenario with the new campaign video launched on Facebook and YouTube.
In it, voters are shown a New Statesman/Britain Predicts poll placing Labour in second place behind Reform UK, which declared Matt Goodwin as their candidate on Tuesday, with the Green Party far behind in third place.
Labour is directing voters to this video which will run as a non-skippable placement on YouTube. It was seen by more than 100,000 people in the first hour after being uploaded.
Last week a rattled Sir Keir took aim at the Greens for being “high on drugs and soft on Putin”.
However, Mr Polanski, whose party is set to finalise their candidate on Thursday evening, told The Independent that he is bullish about their chances in the by-election
He said: “It’s Greens vs Reform. We’re already seeing that on the doorstep. It’s absolutely game on. We plan to run this campaign like one has never been run before”
He added: “If you wanted a political story that defines politics in our world right now – this is it. Big money Vs community. We’re standing up for the UK versus them standing up for Trump. It’s hope versus hate. We have to win it.”
Explaining the new advertising campaign, a Labour insider said: “Zack Polanski has spent days trying to peddle false narratives. If he actually read what he’s posting, Polanski would notice that the Green Party are polling in third in Gorton and Denton. The Greens are simply not in the race.
“With Reform picking a candidate who is trying to drive a wedge between communities here in Manchester, we can’t risk the Greens letting Matt Goodwin in through the back door by misleading voters about the state of the race. The stakes are too high.
“That’s why it’s important that we cut out Polanski’s Westminster waffle – and tell it like it is direct to Mancunians. We know anti-social behaviour causes nuisance to people in their local communities. Therefore locals will be up in arms when they discover the Greens’ plans to legalise all drugs.”
They added: “The Greens are simply high on their own supply if they think Manchester is going to fall for it. Labour are the only party that can take on the divisive politics of Reform.”
