The country’s most successful political party, when it comes to winning elections, finds itself in a position as dire as it is unprecedented.
They were crushed in a general election and have gone backwards since. The Conservatives’ opinion poll ratings are desperate.
Kemi Badenoch’s position as leader remains perilous because of this.
But there’s been a concerted effort over the last few days here at the Conservative Party conference to give the party something to talk about, in other words: a blitz of policy.
And from one or two conversations I’ve had after her speech, including from some internal sceptics, “pleasant surprise” is a recurring theme.
In Badenoch’s first keynote speech to the conference, there was one big reveal. They were so excited about it that they didn’t tell us in advance. It was new to us, and to many in the party too: the abolition of stamp duty on main homes in England and Northern Ireland.
Put alongside proposed savings of £47bn, the Conservatives think this amounts to claiming back the mantle of economic responsibility in a way that ordinary households can notice.
But the key thing here is that yes, the party has given itself something to talk about, but is anyone listening?
As a new leader, Badenoch did not want to rush into announcing policies.
Partly out of an authentic belief that you’ve got to think things through before you announce them, so she talked about policies, not announcements, detail, not just headlines.
But the perpetual challenge for an opposition party, is that if you announce policies too soon, either they get nicked or time overtakes them – and you end up ditching them before you get into power, and are able to implement them.
What I’ve noticed this week is there’s a Darwinian selection about the people who have come to the conference in Manchester.
Yes, the numbers were down on where they were a few years ago as you’d expect. But those who’ve turned up are up for the fight.
There’s a definite desire for the Conservatives to find some clear blue water, particularly on the economic agenda.
And there’s some polling evidence to suggest despite all the rows, on the legacy of Liz Truss and her mini-budget, that there is a well of support on their economic prospectus that they might be able to build on.
And one more fascinating thing – this was all framed around a conversation about the Conservatives or Labour.
There was barely references to Reform and Nigel Farage.
Badenoch will hope her speech buys her some time and some attention. In our noisy political ecosystem, neither is guaranteed.
