After a series of open revolts by his backbenchers – the last so powerful that it overwhelmed his government’s ability to withstand it – and having executed a variety of hand-brake turns, U-turns, and very nearly leaving the highway altogether, the prime minister finds himself at a fork in the road.
Behind him is a milestone that reads “2 July 2024. The first Labour election victory since 2005.” Ahead of him, two routes. One, bearing left, is a dead end, as he must surely realise. He cannot carry on as he has in recent weeks, relegated to being a back-seat passenger with a succession of backbench rebels grabbing at the wheel.
No prime minister can survive in such circumstances – as the recent history of the Conservative Party graphically reminds us. “Chaos and confusion” was how Sir Keir Starmer derided it in opposition, as the Johnson, Truss and Sunak administrations gyrated around like broken shopping trolleys. Now, against all expectations, the prime minister has suffered some unfortunate traffic collisions of his own.
Those who wish for the Labour government to succeed in taking difficult but necessary decisions in the national interest, as was always and apparently sincerely promised, are frankly dismayed that it should come to this. A critical friend has therefore to warn the prime minister of the parlous position he finds himself in, and so early in his time in office. The fiasco over the welfare bill acts as an exemplar of what has gone wrong – but which need not have done so.
His government has now managed to push a greatly weakened version of its original welfare bill through the Commons, and with maximum pressure applied to the loyalty of his MPs. In many respects, it represents a defeat, if not a humiliation for Sir Keir.
It should not have happened in this fashion, and he has not been well-served by his chancellor, it must be said. The aim of placing the social security system on a sustainable footing is well supported across the political spectrum. All agree there is a balance to be found between being fair to vulnerable people and to the taxpayers.
There was an opportunity to create a better system, one that both kept the budget within realistic constraints, and which removed some of the present anomalies and flaws. Given time and attention, it might even have been a new Beveridge report, refounding the welfare state. It would – should – similarly command public confidence and cross-party consensus.
Instead, we suffered a thinly camouflaged, Treasury-led exercise in finding £5bn in cuts because Rachel Reeves was in a hurry. She had, not for the first time, allowed herself insufficient room for manoeuvre on her own fiscal rules. Liz Kendall’s reforming ambitions were left badly mauled as a result – but with them, Sir Keir’s own authority and credibility.
What’s done is done, and now the prime minister needs to learn the lessons of recent events, and display the sort of grit and steely determination in steering his party that he did in the early years of his time as leader of the opposition. That is the road to political recovery he can take, and there is an extremely happy precedent – himself. After all, Sir Keir has done a restoration job before, and he should remind himself of that.
Against all odds, as has been too easily forgotten, perhaps even by Sir Keir himself, he picked up the pieces after the Corbyn debacle of 2019, when no one else could or wanted to, and led his party to that famous triumph a year ago. When he was elected leader of the party, it was in the middle of the Covid lockdown, and no one much was interested in anything he wished to say. Labour looked to be out for a decade, or longer.
Certainly, Sir Keir was greatly assisted by the antics of his Tory opponents, but there was also nothing preordained about the last general election. He and his team transformed a Conservative majority of 80 into a Labour overall majority of 174 – unprecedented in modern times.
The position now is eminently recoverable. Unlike in opposition, Sir Keir can do things, and has the whole machinery of government at his disposal. He can learn the lessons of recent events. He and those around him need to rediscover their political instincts and their sure touch for public opinion. He needs to work harder on his “messaging” – astonishingly, his government has not yet crafted a definitive “narrative”, something that can guide his ministers, reassure his party and persuade the voters to stay on board.
Clearly, he needs to engage more with the parliamentary party, and ensure he has a team with sufficient political nous close to him in No 10 and around the cabinet table. He cannot afford to be blindsided again in the way he also was with the rise of Reform UK in the local elections, and the pensioners’ winter fuel payment, the worst disaster of all.
Conversely, Labour successes in the NHS, in investing for growth, rebuilding links with Europe, and in trade and foreign affairs, are there to be boasted about. He also needs a wordsmith who can help him avoid some of the gaffes he has needlessly made, notably that “island of strangers” moment.
He has to regain his authority over his party – and remind them who they owe their seats to, and the reality of the ultimate catastrophe of handing power to Nigel Farage.
There is much more to be done. On schools, social care, social security, local services, housing, the cost of living and irregular migration, the public is impatient for that word we heard so often this time last year: “change”.
The good news is that Sir Keir still has time on his side – but he does need to keep his eye on the road, and, as it happens, the Treasury.
