WE’RE all set for a great Punchestown Festival this week to close the National Hunt season, the weather looks good and the racing should be even better.
The Champion Chase is the feature race of day one and there are plenty of horses here who are going to underperform at this week’s festival because of the changing ground and the fact that they’ve had a long year.
However, neither of those factors will apply to Marine Nationale, who has only had two runs this season and actually appreciates quick ground. I saw him at Barry Connell’s yard last week and he looks fantastic.
He’s going for back-to-back wins in this race after missing Cheltenham. Cheek-pieces are applied today, which is a little bit of a question mark for me, but while Majborough beat him earlier in the year, I think on better ground Marine Nationale can take him.
Marine Nationale is going for back-to-back wins in this race
Il Etait Temps was good at Cheltenham but he was good in the absence of Marine and an underperforming Majborough, so I’m thinking Barry Connell might just beat Willie Mullins – he is the only man with the chance to do that as Willie fields four of the five runners in this one.
At 4.50 it’s the Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase for three-milers, the second of two Grade One races today.
If you ask yourself which of these is most likely to be a contender for a Gold Cup next year, it’s most likely Kitzbuhel, who was so good at Cheltenham, where he landed the Brown Advisory Novice Chase.
He’ll be better going right-handed considering he jumps to his right, he’s tactically versatile and he’s a horse that has stamina in abundance.
So I think this race is made for Kitzbuhel and he can cap what has been a pretty fantastic year with a third win at the highest level.
The other Grade One is the PRL Champion Novice Hurdle over two miles at 4.15.
El Cairos is back after a disappointing defeat in Cheltenham and I’m going to take him on with a horse that was also disappointing at that Festival, called Sober from the Willie Mullins yard.
Dropping back to two miles can only enhance Sober’s chances because he was a very easy winner at Royal Ascot last June. He was a good winner at Punchestown in January and I just don’t things fell correctly for him at Cheltenham.
He’s keen and this smaller field will help him today. Paul Townend rides him which is always a plus. I think he’s got the speed to beat the National Hunt horses if that’s the way it transpires, and I just feel like he’s a lot better than what we saw at Cheltenham. So for me it’s Sober to out-speed the National Hunt horses over the minimum trip.
The puzzle gets a lot trickier outside of those Graded races. The 3.40 is the Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle over two miles and I like Jet To Monte Carlo.
Over the same trip he was very good at Fairyhouse at Easter; he’s got a nine-pound higher mark as a result which means he has to step up in grade but he still has a light weight and Conor Stone-Walsh rides at 10 stone.
I think he’s interesting for Emmett Mullins and his owner Paul Byrne, who teamed up together to win the Irish Grand National.
This guy is still on the improve, it was a facile win at Fairyhouse and I think there’s more to come from him.
The first race is a cross-country race, the Kildare Hunt Club Chase for the Ladies Cup, and I think Fountain House is very hard to oppose here.
He’s on a winning sequence after winning his last three point-to-points, he was second in this race before, he’s got cheekpieces on for the first time and is in against horse that are completely out of form.
I think Fountain House relishes the track and trip and he’s in the form of his life.
The second race is the Albert Bartlett Series Final Handicap Hurdle and I’ll side with Matt Connor here, at a big price.
He’s a son of Teofilo out of a Dubawi mare and the reason I say that, is because he’s a horse who was bred for the flat and won’t mind the quicker ground. If it is an emphasis on pace then Matt Connor will have it.
He won at Gowran Park earlier this month on the flat, but before that won over hurdles at Naas. He’s now 11 pounds higher in the handicap but with those two recent successes, he is clearly on an upward trajectory, and probably has more to come.
I think the best advice for the two bumpers is to take a watching brief as most of them are having their first runs and we’ve very little to go on, but hopefully we’ve got the week off to a successful start elsewhere on the card.
