Israel’s campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme and decapitate its military with bombardments across the west of the country is part of a comprehensive plan to remove the existential threat Iran posed to the Jewish state. The “second-order effect” may be no less important – regime change.
Israel has been planning this for years. It has shaped the battlefield with assassinations of nuclear scientists, the destruction of Iranian regional proxy militias, and bombing of its missile facilities last year.
This year, it has slipped Mossad intelligence agency commandos into the country where they’ve shown Ukrainian levels of innovation and used drones to snuff out Iran’s air defences and target missile launch sites.
Two more top leaders of the Iranian forces have been slain in meticulously targeted strikes.
Politicians, though, have not yet appeared on the Israeli kill lists. That is deliberate. Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly tried to appeal to the Iranian people to rise against the Islamic regime that has ruled over them since 1979.
On Friday, as Israel’s first waves of 200 aircraft were conducting their first sorties against Iran, he broadcast an appeal directly to the Iranian people.
“Israel’s fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,” Netanyahu said.
“The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,” he added. “This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard.”
Iran’s regime is oppressive. It hangs poets and journalists, gasses schoolgirls for protesting against being forced to wear head scarves and takes foreigners hostage. It has backed murderous campaigns by Hamas, created the militia-cum-mafia that is modern Hezbollah, and used the Houthis of Yemen to destabilise world trade through the Red Sea.
These are “military” operations, and so, for now, Israel is focusing its efforts on Iran’s military officers and capabilities. The message from Israel, though, to politicians and surviving soldiers, is that the smart money lies in removing the mullahs who have ruled Iran before Israel kills them, or another revolution sweeps every element of the current system away.
“Pandora’s box has been cast wide open with Israel’s sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets — an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East. By targeting senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership and nuclear infrastructure deep inside Iranian territory, Israel has signalled a willingness to confront Tehran at a scale and depth previously unseen,” said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow, Middle East security, at the Royal United Services Institute.
The exiled son of Iran’s last shah, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, blamed the Israeli attacks on Iran’s supreme leader, ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying it was “Khamenei’s war, not Iran’s”.
In a statement shared online, Pahlavi appealed directly to Iran’s military, police, and intelligence personnel, urging them to “separate yourselves from this corrupt and incompetent leadership” and “join the people”. He said that the Islamic Republic’s leadership “values neither your lives nor the future of Iran… The solution is the overthrow of the Islamic Republic through street protests and nationwide strikes,” he said.
Iran has fired 200 ballistic missiles in four waves against Israel in its first round of retaliation. Most have been shot down, but at least three Israelis have been killed by the counterattacks.
This provoked Israel Katz, Israel’s defence minister, to threaten the kind of revenge that would destroy any hope of an uprising against the Islamic regime.
“The Iranian dictator is taking the citizens of Iran hostage, bringing about a reality in which they, and especially Tehran’s residents, will pay a heavy price for the flagrant harm inflicted upon Israel’s citizens. If Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn,” Katz raged.
Israel has said that its campaign, which has already involved attacks on 150 sites, could take a week or even two. The military aim is clear – the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme and the emasculation of its conventional military capabilities.
With every wave of ballistic missiles Iran fires, its inventory falls and Israel’s ability to identify launch sites increases.
Israel says it has killed nine nuclear scientists but avoided other civilian casualties. Iran’s state media has said that 60 civilians, including 20 children, have been killed by Israel so far.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza has shown that a Katz-style blitzkrieg of Iran is not a threat that the Jewish state is afraid of carrying out. So far, Israel has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, at least half of whom have been women and children in Gaza.
The Trump administration has protected Israel from much of the criticism for its operations in Gaza. But when it comes to Iran, there is unanimity in what Western leaders would like to see as an outcome. They all want to see a regime change no matter how much they call for “restraint”.
Prising Iran out of its close relationship with Moscow, which is its biggest civilian nuclear power backer and which supports its operations in Ukraine, would be a huge bonus. Regime change in Iran, an oil-rich nation with an ancient culture, an educated population, that sits at the centre of geopolicy, would be an ideal outcome for the West.
Tehran knows this, which is why it has threatened to attack British and French interests if they get involved in even helping to defend Israel against its rockets.
Paris and London, meanwhile, are sitting back and enjoying the demise of Iran’s nuclear programme while hoping to see the “second-order effect” of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion emerge as a revolution in Iran.
